NFL betting tip for week 12- Sunday Night Football, a HUGE match up this week with the QB match up of the season, it’s an epic battle between Payton Manning’s Denver Broncos who travel to New England to take on Brady’s patriots. Who does @DannyAction18 favour ?
Denver Bronco’s v’s New England Patriots
The 9-1 Broncos visit the 7-3 Patriots for the latest and greatest game of the century. Overall I think these teams are pretty similar; Mediocre defenses and two very good offenses. The Patriots have started to click on offense with both Rob Gronkowski and Shane Vareen healthy. Any notion that they would try to hold the ball to keep it away from Peyton Manning at home is ridiculous. When the Patriots run the ball, it will be to gain yards, not take time off the clock. Last year against Denver, the Patriots ran 89 plays, 54 of them were running plays. I don’t think they play at quite that pace, but they will play to score points, plain and simple.
Looking at the last three meetings between Brady and Manning, (2009, 2010 with the Colts, last year against Denver) the Patriots have come out strong early before Manning’s team has gotten back into the game. I think what happens here is that the superior game plan of Belichick shines through before the talent of Manning evens the game out later in the game. I expect something similar on Sunday night where the Patriots will come out strong after a loss on Monday Night and Jack Del Rio on the opposite sideline. So, my first bet for the game is New England 1st Quarter Money Line (I don’t see a line yet but I’m thinking -105?)
Looking at the whole game, I doubt the Patriots will blitz much as Manning destroys the blitz. Instead, I think they will put Aqib Talib on Demarious Thomas, flood the middle of the field with players to stop Welker and Julius Thomas, and simply hope that Erick Decker does not burn them. Thomas is a better match-up for Talib than Steve Smith was last week. Talib has played well against bigger receivers like Julio Jones, Vincent Jackson, A.J Green, and Jimmy Graham. These are all bigger players that Talib can match-up with, as opposed to Smith who is smaller, more of a route runner, and faster. It looks like starting Safety and signal caller Steve Gregory will also be back for this game.
On offense I think the Patriots will get what they want in this game. In the last 3 games against Denver, New England has put up 31, 41, 45 points. Last week against Carolina, , the Patriots had 7 possessions, with one punt, two touchdowns, two field goals, a fumble in the red zone, and then the last drive of the game going 60 yards in 50 something seconds. That is against one of the better defenses in the league so I think this week against a mediocre defense they will put up a lot of points.
It will be pretty cold Sunday night with highs around 30 degrees Fahrenheit. In cold weather, give me Brady over Manning every time.
Here are some great trends working in the Patriots favour-
Patriots coach Bill Belichick off a straight-up loss: covered 25 of 34 ATS next game
Bill Belichick with Patriots: 36-19-1 ATS (67%) as underdog.
Patriots as an underdog following a loss: 15-2 ATS
Patriots as an underdog following game as underdog: 16-3 ATS
New England has won 35 of 38 regular season home games (SU)
Give me the Patriots at home after a loss and thrice on Sunday Night.
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I see the Patriots putting up plenty of points and I think the Broncos will score enough to warrant a bet on the Over as well.
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