Horse Racing Betting Tips – 3.30pm bet365 Criterion Stakes at Newmarket

Horse racing betting tips for the 3.30 Criterion Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday.

This weekend’s British racing is dominated by events at Newcatle and Newmarket with the latter hosting a competitive eight race card.  The bet365 Criterion Stakes is the highlight of the meeting and, run over 7f on the July course, this contest has attracted nine runners.

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The starting point has to be the Group 3 Jury Stakes that took place at the end of May at Haydock where four of today’s runners met.  Off level weights Penitent (14/1 Coral) claimed victory beating Eton Forever, Garswood and Tawhid.  The winner then went on to finish last of seven runners another Group 3 contest at Epsom.  Thanks to his victory in the Jury Stakes he will have to shoulder a 5lb penalty and with that, should find things considerably harder here today.

Of those he beat, Eton Forever (7/1 William Hill) fared the best by only loosing out by just over two lengths and, with the swing in the weight,s should overturn the form over a trip he seems to excel at.  Garswood (9/2 Coral) was doing his best work at the line but has been a disappointing runner on both of his two starts this season.  He looked progressive as a three year-old but has seemingly struggled to rekindle the form that saw him contesting Group 1 contests at the end of last year.  His trainer has decided to apply blinkers for the first time in the hope that they spark him back to life.  

The most interesting of runners from that form line is Tawhid (9/1 Ladbrokes), the Godolphin representative who finished some seven and half lengths behind the eventual winner.  Despite this considerable margin of defeat he had every chance entering the final few furlongs and came to challenge on the bridle whilst others were beginning to struggle.  Unfortunately he found very little and faded in the style of a horse who desperately needed the first run of his season.  He could well come on for those exertions and, with conditions likely to suit, he looks a strong contender.

The remainder of the field all look to have chances.  Indignant (14/1 Ladbrokes) is the only filly in the race and therefore receives a 3lb weight allowance which should aid here cause.  She is a C&D winner who won a Listed event last time out where she beat her stablemate Professor on good to firm ground.  Top Notch Tonto (10/1 Coral) will appreciate every drop of rain that falls before post time and would be a leading contender if able to reproduce the form that saw him finish second to Olympic Glory in the Group 1 QEII Stakes last season.  Highland Colori (9/1 SkyBet) won the Ayr Gold Cup last season and has shown himself to be as effective over 7f when winning a good quality conditions race from the front at Doncaster again last season.  Both he and Top Notch Tonto have struggled so far this season and don't appeal as attractive betting prospects.  

Tow horses remain – Gabriel’s Lad (9/2 Betfred) and Gregorian.  The former is another C&D winner and was successful in winning the 25 runner Victoria Cup on his latest start in impressive fashion.  This will be his first step outside of handicap company and, although a reproduction of that form would make him hard to beat, his best form has come in big field contests where he has had a strong pace to run at.  This race could turn into a tactical affair and that is definitely unlikely to suit.  

Finally then, we have GREGORIAN (11/2 William Hill) who represents the in-form pair of John Gosden and William Buick.  A Group 2 winner last season, this horse has consistently performed well at a high level and on his best form is clearly capable of claiming this prize.  His seasonal reappearance was a little disappointing (finishing fifth of seven over 9f), but he could well have needed the run and certainly came in for plenty of support before the off.  Back over the trip which has seen him to best effect, he should benefit from the pipe-opener and should be able to get his season back on track.  Current ground conditions aren’t wholly in his favour but, should the forecast rain arrive, he looks to have solid claims at an appealing price.

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A very difficult race to decipher and its hard to be wholly confident with a selection; however, the two runners to focus on are Tawhid and GREGORIAN.  Both should come on for their reappearance runs and both look to have plenty more to offer.  Of the two, the marginal preference is for Gregorian who has the better form in the book and beat Tawhid last season at Newbury on ground just on the soft side of good despite giving away 5lbs to his rival.  The testing nature of Newmarket’s July course lends itself to a horse who can see out the 7f trip fully and with stamina guaranteed, Gosden’s runner looks to offer plenty of value.

bet365 Criterion Stakes Betting Tip – 

GREGORIAN (WIN) (11/2 William Hill)

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