Saturday’s Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: 5th Dec 2015

Saturday's Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: 5th Dec 2015 More good winners last weekend – Another huge Saturday ahead with the Tingle Creek, Becher Chase and the Grand Sefton Chase the feature races at Sandown & Aintree – As always we’ve got all the C4 TV trends and our free horse racing tips.  

Horse racing betting expert, Andy Newton, gives you his free horse racing tips and stats this Saturday 5th Dec 2015 across the LIVE C4 races from Sandown & Aintree racecouses.

 

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Sandown Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

1.55 – Racing Post Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

12/12 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
12/12 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Won a UK chase race over at least 2m
11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
11/12 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/12 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Won their last race
10/12 – French (7) or Irish (3) bred
9/12 – Favourites placed
9/12 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (1 won)
9/12 – Ran at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
7/12 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
6/12 – Favourites (1 joint)
5/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/12 – Winners went onto finish 1st or 2nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
2/12 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh

FREE HORSE RACING TIP:Trainer Paul Nicholls has a great record in this race – winning it four times since 2007, so his AS DE MEE (Bet here at 4/1 with Skybet) stands out here. The horse was a solid second to the classy More Of That last time out at Cheltenham, while he’s a course winner here at Sandown – albeit over hurdles. Of the rest, Bristol De Mai would be a big player if making the final line-up. The Twiston-Davies-trained horse was a smooth winner at Warwick last time out – jumping superbly that day – and would get weight from the others.

2.25 – Jumeirah December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y CH4

11/12 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/12 – Raced within the last month
11/12 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
10/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
10/12 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
9/12 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
9/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/12 – Rated between 116-128
8/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Favourites unplaced
7/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/12 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 7/1

FREE HORSE RACING TIP: A tough-looking race – anything trainer Nicky Henderson runs should be respected as the yard have won the race 3 times in the last 12 years – with that in mind his NESTERENKO (Bet here at 15/2 with Coral) is the call here. Unseated last time out, but ran well the two times before that.

3.00 – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

13/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/13 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Aged 9 or younger
11/13 – Won a Grade One chase before
11/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
10/13 – Priced 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Favourites placed
10/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/13 – Officially rated 165 or higher
10/13 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
9/13 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
9/13 – French bred
9/13 – Won at least 4 times over fences before
8/13 – Favourites (2 joint)
8/13 – Won their last race
8/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/13 – Won a chase race at Sandown before
5/13 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
3/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
1/13 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 5/2

Note: The 2010 renewal was staged at Cheltenham

FREE HORSE RACING TIP: The absence of Willie Mullins’ Un De Sceaux from the race has made this contest a bit more open and it paves the way for trainer Paul Nicholls to land a famous tenth victory. His Vibrato Valtat has now been made favourite for the race and heads here full of confidence after an easy win in the Haldon Chase at Exeter last time out. He’s also a past CD winner here at the track when winning on this card 12 months ago and that’s a big plus here – expected to go well. It was good to see the classy Simonsig back on the track when second over hurdles at Aintree last time. If he finds his 2012-13 chase form then he’s a huge player for the Henderson yard, but it remains to be seen if he’s as good after his injury. Sire De Grugy won this race in 2013 and followed that up by winning the Champion Chase later that season. He’s rather lost his way since, but don’t forget he is 3-from-3 here at Sandown over fences so that could spark him back into life. However, the value e/w call here looks to be SPECIAL TIARA (Bet here at 7/2 with William Hill). This 8 year-old beat Sprinter Sacre by 6 lengths here back in April and despite running poorly last time in Ireland that was his first run for over 6 months. He was third in the Champion Chase last season and in recent seasons has often needed a run or two to hit top gear so should be better this time.

3.35 – Betfair London National Handicap Chase Cl2 3m5f110y CH4

11/11 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
10/11 – Won (fences) over at least 3m before
9/11 – Aged 8 or older
9/11 – Rated 126 or higher
9/11 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
8/11 – Favourites unplaced
8/11 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/11 – Irish bred
6/11 – Carried 11-0 or more
6/11 – Ran over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
4/11 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Towcester (2) last time out
4/11 – Won their their last race
3/11 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/11 – Trained by Tom George
1/11 –  Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 13/2

FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Staying will be the order of the day here and there are some key stats to take into the race. Horses aged 8 or older have done the best, plus look for horses that had a failry recent run. With that in mind Jo Hughes’ SILVER MAN (Bet here at 12/1 with 888Sport) catches the eye. Nico de Boinville is a good jockey booking for this 8 year-old, who wasn’t beaten far into sixth last time out at Cheltenham. Yes, the horse would not want much more rain, but looks a true stayer having won well over 3m1f at Aintree back in June. He’s finished in the top three in 8 of his 13 chase starts and there could be more to come. Of the rest, Don’t Do Monday’s off a light-weight, is another to consider.

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

1.40 – Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f CH4

10/13 – Irish bred
10/13 – Had no more than 1 start that season
10/13 – Carried 10-12 or less
10/13 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
10/13 – Aged 9 or older
10/13 – Officially rated between 123-138
9/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
9/13 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
8/13 – Raced at Aintree before
8/13 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
8/13 – Raced over these Grand National-style fences before
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/13 – Raced in the previous season’s Grand National
5/13 – Favourites placed
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/13 – Irish-trained winners
3/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Favourites
2/13 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/13 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 5 times since 1993

FREE HORSE RACING TIP: The Nigel Twiston-Davies yard have done well very well this race in recent years and they look to have another good chance here with Algernon Pazham. This 6 year-old should still have more to give with age on his side and was a decent second last time out at Bangor on his return outing. That run would have brought him on for this, but my only concern would be his lack of experience in a race like this – the trends back up that horses aged 9 or older, and those that have won between 2-5 times over fences, are the ones to concentrate on – unfortunately the Twiston-Davies horse falls down on both those stats. We also get the chance to see the 2014 Grand National winner – Pineau De Re – but at 12 year-old time is not on his side and has struggled since that famous Aintree win. So, the call is SAINT ARE (e/w) (Bet here at 01/1 with Bet365) who was an excellent second in the Grand National back in April. Ok, that effort might have left its mark, but the horse should be better for a recent spin at Cheltenham and was also a solid third in this race 12 months ago. The Tom George horses are starting to fire and at around 8/1 rates a decent e/w option in a race we know suits, while having plenty of experience over these National-style fences is a huge plus.

2.15 – Betfred "Racing´s Biggest Supporter" Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f CH4

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/4 – Aged 8 or younger
2/4 – Favourites
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 & 2014
Nicky Henderson won the race in 2011

FREE HORSE RACING TIP: Not much to go on re the trends here with just four previous renewals. We get the chance to see the 2015 Grand National winner – Many Clouds – return to Aintree here, but he’s return run was a bit disappointing and it remains to be seen if that monster effort back in April has left it’s mark. Not many horses have come out of National success and gone onto do much in later seasons so we’ll have to see if the same applies to Many Clouds here. Paul Nicholls has won this race in 2013 and 2014 so his runner SOUTHFIELD THEATRE (Bet here at 6/1 with Ladbrokes) is the safer option. His 7 year-old gets weight (5lbs) from Many Clouds, while a recent third at Sandown behind the Gold Cup winner, Coneygree, would have blown away the cobwebs. Before that he was second in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and on that form rates a big player. From his six chase starts he’s won three and finished in the top three in the others.

2.45 – Betfred "Be Part of The Action" Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f

9/11 – Carried 10-9 or more in weight
8/11 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the bettings
8/11 – Aged 6 or younger
8/11 – Rated 123 or higher
8/11 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
7/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
7/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Placed favourites
6/11 – Won over at last 2m4f before
6/11 – Raced at Aintree before (2 winners)
6/11 – Won their last race
6/11 – French (3) or Irish (3) bred
5/11 – Favourites
2/11 – Trained by Peter Bowen
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

 

3.20 – Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y CH4

10/10 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
9/10 – Aged 8 or older
8/10 – Rated 124 or more
7/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
7/10 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Run at Aintree before (2 over the GN style fences)
more
6/10 – Returned a double-figure price
6/10 – Carried 10-12 or more
5/10 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
5/10 – Winning distance 2 ½ lengths or
2/10 – Favourites
1/10 – Won last time out
1/10 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (5th)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 18/1

FREE HORSE RACING TIP: The Twiston-Davies yard won this race in 2012 and their DOUBLE ROSS (E/W) (Bet here at 5/1 with Betway) stands out in a bid to add to those past glories. Their 9 year-old ticks many of the key stats and was an excellent fourth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup only 3 weeks ago. Jockey Ryan Hatch gets on very well with the horse and his 3lb claim is an added bonus. The horse has finished in the top three in 10 of his 18 chase starts and ran well when fifth of 30 in the Topham in 2014 over these GN-style fences. Of the others, last year’s winner, Poole Master, is entered again, and being the only CD winner in the field then he warrants respect off just a 2lb higher mark. However, the horse has rather gone off the boil since that victory and so connections will be hoping the return to the scene of his last victory will spark some life back into him.

 

 

 

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

The team behind the betting tips, offers and promotions at tipster website thatsbettingtips.com.