Saturday’s Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends – 22nd August 2015
As we move into the final of the 4-day York Ebor Meeting with some more top-notch horse racing action to enjoy. The C4 horse racing team are at the course to cover four LIVE races, including Betfred Ebor Handicap, plus the C4 cameras are at Sandown for three races and Chester for one – A busy afternoon of LIVE horse racing action.
Horse racing tipping expert, Andy Newton, gives you his free horse racing tips, big race trends and best bets this Saturday (22nd Aug) from York, Chester and Sandown.
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CORAL: Money back if beaten into second by a HEAD(or less) – up to £/€25 per race.
Today’s Horse Racing Tips – SATURDAY 22nd August 2015
YORK HORSE RACING TIPS (C4/RUK)
2.00 – Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m208y CH4
12/12 – Won over at least a mile previously
12/12 – Won at least twice in the their career
12/12 – Had between 2 and 4 runs already that season
9/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/12 – Won over a mile previously
8/12 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
8/12 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/12 – Placed horses from stall 2
7/12 – Unplaced in their last race
7/12 – Previous Group race winners
6/12 – Priced 11/4 or shorter in the betting
6/12 – Won by Godolphin
4/12 – Favourites (1 joint)
4/12 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/12 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/12 – Won at York previously
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2
Note: The 2009 running was a dead-heat
VERDICT: The David O’Meara yard took this race 12 months ago and they look to have another great chance – this time with MODIALSTE (e/w) (Bet here at 5/1 with Coral). The horse was a good winner last time out at Pontefract – winning by 10 lengths and so the leap up from Listed to Group 3 company should not be an issue. Ground, trip and track look ideal and the stable number one jockey, Danny Tudhope, picks this one over their other runner – Birdman.
2.35 – Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f CH4
11/12 – Never raced at York
10/12 – Won carrying 9-0 or less in weight
10/12 – Won over 1m4f or further
10/12 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
10/12 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
10/12 – Had 4 or more runs that season
8/12 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
6/12 – Winning distance 1 length or less
5/12 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
5/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Favourites (1 co)
2/12 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 8/1
VERDICT: A very tough race, but with 10 of the last 12 winners returning 9/1 or shorter then it’s generally a contest the punters get right. William Haggas can do little wrong this week at the meeting so his WONDER LAISH (e/w) (Bet here at 9/1 with Ladbrokes) is certainly one to note. This lightly-raced 3 year-old was a very easy winner last time out at Lingfield and despite this being a step up into handicap company for the first time is clearly progressing. DUKE STREET (e/w) (Bet here at 16/1 with Paddy Power) is another horse in the up after a string of good wins over the summer. This Mark Johnston-trained 3 year-old is tough and could well be hard to pass of his low weight.
3.10 – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f CH4
12/12 – Won 1-2 times previously
12/12 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Won just once previously
9/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/12 – Foaled in March or later
8/12 – Won over 6f previously
7/12 – From the top 3 in the betting
7/12 – Unplaced favourites
5/12 – Won by a March foal
5/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/12 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/12 – Trained by William Haggas
2/12 – Ridden by Jimmy Fortune
1/12 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
VERDICT: Another big hand for the Haggas team here with both AJAYA (e/w) (Bet here 7/1 with Paddy Power) and RAUCOUS (Bet here at 12/1 with Boylesports) heading to post. The first-named was a decent second last time out in France in a Group Two so brings top form into the race. Raucous is unbeaten from 2 starts, but needs a step forward in this grade, but is thought capable of that by his popular trainer. The Godolphin team also have a decent hand here with Steady Pace and Buratino, but we’ll stick with the Haggas runners with the yard winning this in 2006 and 2010.
3.45 – Betfred Ebor (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m6f CH4
13/13 – Aged 6 or younger
13/13 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
11/13 – Came from a double-figure stall
11/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
10/13 – Winning Distance – 1 length or less
10/13 – Won over at least 1m4f before
8/13 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
8/13 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
6/13 – Favourites unplaced
5/13 – Raced at York before
5/13 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/13 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
3/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/13 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/13 – Raced at Galway last time out
2/13 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)
1/13 – Favourites
Just one winning favourite in the last 16 runnings
Luca Cumani has won the race in 1999, 2004 & 2007
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 22/1
VERDICT: The Irish are having a big raid on Europe’s most valuable handicap this year with the Willie Mullins-trained Clondaw Warrior a big player with Frankie riding and just 9-1 to carry. But Stall 1 is not ideal and he’s overlooked. Aidan O’Brien sends over Fields Of Athenry too – this horse has a 4lb penalty for a recent win at Leopardstown but has done little wrong winning three of his five starts and could be anything with connections taking off a further 5lbs with the jockey’s claim too. However, the value in the race could sit with the Hughie Morrison pair FUN MAC (e/w) (Bet here at 14/1 with 888Sport) and NEARLY CAUGHT (e/w) (Bet here at 20/1 with Bet365). The first-named was only ½ a lengths behind Clondaw Warrior last time at Ascot but is double the price, while Nearly Caught was an excellent third in the Northumberland Plate over 2m – on that running has every chance of being in the mix too.
SANDOWN HORSE RACING TIPS (C4/RUK)
1.45 – Thoroughbred Breeders´ Association Atalanta Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m14y CH4
11/13 – Winning distance 1 ¼ or less
11/13 – Had 3 or more runs that season
10/13 – Returned 4/1 or shorter
10/13 – Won over a mile before
10/13 – Aged 3 years-old
9/13 – Rated between 98 and 108
9/13 – Placed in their last race
8/13 – Won 3 or more times before
8/13 – Won a Listed or Group class race
5/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Favourites
4/13 – Raced at Sandown previously
4/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/13 – Raced at Ascot last time out
The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 4/1
VERDICT: This has been a cracking race for the Sir Michael Stoute team so their Angel Vision is one for the shortlist, but she’s stepped up to Group 3 company here and a lot more is needed on these terms. Roger Varian’s Talmada is the highest-rated but the yard’s horses are not quite firing at present so she’s overlooked. Wiener Valkyrie gets a lot of weight and should not be far away, but Ralph Beckett’s EVITA PERON (e/w) (Bet here at 5/1 with Skybet) looks progressive and won’t mind any give underfoot. The drying ground might not be 100% ideal then, but she was a close second in a Group 3 two runs back and took a Listed race last time so heads here full of confidence.
2.15 – 888Sport Solario Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f16y CH4
12/13 – Yet to race at Sandown
12/13 – Won at least one race previously
12/13 – Won over 6 or 7f before
11/13 – Foaled in Jan, Feb or March
9/13 – Favourites placed
8/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Had 2 or more previous runs
7/13 – Won over 7f previously
7/13 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/13 – Favourites
4/13 – Won by John Gosden
3/13 – Ridden by Jimmy Fortune
2/13 – Won by Mark Johnston
2/13 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda (two of last 4 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3
VERDICT: Mark Johnston has a good record in this race so his Beaverbrook, who will like the step down in grade, is certainly one to note. However, the Hugo Palmer team took this race 12 months ago and look to have another good chance – this time with THEY SEEK HIM HERE (Bet here at 10/3 with Bet365). The horse was pulled out of a race at Salisbury on Friday to come here and after finishing ahead of Beaverbrook last time out has the measure of that one already, while with just two career runs there should be more to come.
2.50 – Kalaglow Handicap Cl2 1m2f7y CH4
11/13 – Raced at either Haydock, York, Newmarket or Goodwood last time
11/13 – Won over 1m2f before
10/13 – Favourites unplaced
10/13 – Had 4 or more runs that season
9/13 – Winning distance 1 length or less
9/13 – Won 3 or more times previously
8/13 – Aged 4 years-old
8/13 – Raced at Sandown before (4 won)
8/13 – Carried 9-0 or more
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price
4/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/13 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/13 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1
VERDICT: On these terms both ROOM KEY (e/w) (Bet here at 20/1 with Paddy Power) and BASATEEN (e/w) (Bet here at 8/1 with William Hill) look the ones to focus on. The first-named wasn’t beaten far in a Group Three last time so will find this a lot easier and Kieren Shoemark takes off a handy 5lbs too. The other pick hails from the powerful Richard Hannon team and is another that’s been running well of late. The first-time blinkers are a plus and with just two runs this season should be spot-on for this now.
CHESTER HORSE RACING TIPS (RUK/C4)
3.30 – SportingBet Handicap Cl2 7f122y CH4
12/12 – Won over at least 7f before
10/12 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
9/12 – Ran at Chester previously
9/12 – Aged 6 or younger
9/12 – Rated between 83-96
9/12 – Carried 8-12 or less
8/12 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
8/12 – Unplaced in their last race
7/12 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/12 – Drawn between stalls 11-14 (inc)
5/12 – Aged 3 years-old
4/12 – Raced at Chester last time out
2/12 – Favourites
2/12– Trained by Mark Brisbourne
2/12 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/12 – Trained by David Evans
1/12 – Won their last race
Ocean Tempest won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/1
VERDICT: OCEAN TEMPEST took this race 12 months ago and CLOCKMAKER landed the prize in 2013. They both line-up again and are respected. Yes, Ocean Tempest has not won a race since, but he’s been highly-tried and with the jockey’s 5lb claim continues to drop to a very handy mark – he won this off a 13lb higher mark last season so is 18lbs better off with the jockey’s claim – he’s 3-from-3 at the track too! Clockmaker was a good fourth last time out here and off the same mark heads here with a big chance too, but his outside draw in 17 is not ideal.
Thatsbettingtips Staff
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