Queen Mother Champion Chase Expert Betting Tips

Saturday’s Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 21st Nov 15

Saturday's Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 21st Nov 15: As we head into Saturday 21st Nov 2015 there is plenty more horse racing action to enjoy and more free horse racing tips – we are going to focus on the LIVE C4 racing from Ascot and Haydock We’ve free horse racing tips and key trends for each of the LIVE races, including the Betfair Chase at 3.00 – can Silviniaco Conti win the race for a third time?


Horse racing betting expert, Andy Newton, gives you his free horse racing tips and stats this Saturday 21st Nov 2015 across the LIVE C4 races from Haydock and Ascot racecouses.


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Ascot Horse Racing Trends (C4/ATR)

2.05 – Stella Artois 1965 Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f8y CH4

11/12 – Aged 8 or younger
10/12 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
9/12 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/12 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
8/12 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
8/12 – Placed favourites
8/12 – Won by a French-bred horse
8/12 – Won over this trip (fences) or further before
7/12 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
7/12 – Ran at Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (5) last time out
6/12 – Favourites (2 joint)
6/12 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
5/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Aged 5 years-old
2/12 – Won by the Alan King yard
2/12 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard
1/12 – Went onto win at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Albertas Run, RyanAir Chase 2009)
Al Ferof won the last two runnings of this race

Note: The 2002 running was at Wincanton and the 2004 renewal at Windsor

FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: A cracking race, but really on these terms it will be a shock if VAUTOUR (Bet here at 2/5 with Paddy Power) doesn’t take this. Willie Mullins send this classy 6 year-old over, who, don’t forget, landed the JLT Novices’ Chase by and easy 15 lengths last March and on that form it will be a huge shock if anything in this field can live with him. Ptit Zig and Third Intention look best of the rest.

 2.40 – Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m3f58y CH4

13/13 – Returned 7/2 or less
12/13 – Won by and Irish (9) or French (3) bred horse
11/13 – Placed favourites
11/13 – Won over at least 2m 1/2f (hurdles) previously
11/13 – Won a Grade 2 (or better) hurdle race previously
10/13 – Won last time out
9/13 – Won by a horse aged 7 or older
9/13 – Won a Grade 1 hurdle race previously
9/13 – Ran last 3 month or longer ago
8/13 – Favourites (2 joint)
7/13 – Won between 3-5 times over hurdles previously
5/13 – Raced in that season’s World Hurdle after winning this (1 won)
4/13 – Went onto race in the Champion Hurdle that same season (all finished 4th or better, Faugheen won both in 2014-15)
3/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/13 – Won a hurdles race at Ascot before
3/13 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable

Note: the 2004 & 2005 renewals were at Windsor

FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: The Nicky Henderson yard have a good record in this race so their Sign Of Victory is one to note, but does have a tiny bit to find on these terms with some of these. Brother Tedd received a bundle of weight from Silviniaco Conti over hurdles last time and beat the King George winner by 4 lengths that day, but is now rated  11lbs higher here. He looks a real improver and at the age of 6 there should be more to come, however, 9 of the last 13 winners have been aged 7 or older so with that in mind we’ll stick with the former Champion Hurdler ROCK ON RUBY (Bet here at 13/8 with Betfred). Now a 10 year-old Harry Fry’s charge still shows a good appetite for the game with fair seconds in his last two outings. The drop back in trip will suit here and we can expect him to have come on for that last run, being it was his first for almost 7 months – he’s yet to finish out of the top three in his 19 career hurdles starts.


3.15 – Shawbrook Handicap Chase Cl2 2m192y CH4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Aged between 6 and 9 years-old
9/9 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/9 – Won over fences over this trip (or further)before
6/9 – Carried 11-0 or more
6/9 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
6/9 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/9 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
5/9 – Rated 142 or higher
5/9 – Ran at Ascot before
4/9 – Placed horses from the Paul Nicholls yard
4/9 – Favourites placed
3/9 – Favourites
3/9 – Aged 6 years-old
3/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: Trainer Evan Williams won this back in 2006 and 2012 so his Bullet Street will be popular, while the same applies to the Paul Nicholls yard who won this in 2007 and 2010 – they run Fago. However, DRESDEN (Bet here at 17/2 with Betway) a good winner for the in-form Henry Oliver camp at Aintree two weeks ago, and a 9lb rise might not be enough to stop him going in again. This 2m trip is ideal and he’s a horse that seems to act well on most ground types. Of the rest, Venetia Williams is another yard that have been going well of late so her Cold March, who is the only previous CD winner in the field, is another that we expect to run well.


Haydock Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

1.50 – Betfair Price Rush Hurdle Cl2 2m45y CH4

1 previous runnings
Paul Nicholls has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Nicky Henderson has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track

FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: Not much to go on re the trends with just the one previous running of the race, but the Nicholls and Henderson yards do very well at the track with their hurdlers so Henderson’s Top Notch and Nicholls’ IRVING (Bet here at 5/4 Betfred) look the ones to focus on here. Top Notch was an excellent second in the Triumph Hurdle last season and makes his seasonal reappearance here in what could be a big season for this 4 year-old. However, Irving has had the benefit of a previous outing when winning at Wincanton last time out. He had Melodic Rendezvous 7 lengths back into second that day and should have the measure of Jeremy Scott’s charge again.

2.25 – Betfair "Tap Tap Boom" "Fixed Brush" Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m6f177y CH4

10 previous runnings
10/10 – Aged between 5 and 7 years-old
9/10 – Won between 1-3 times (hurdles UK) before
8/10 – Carried 10-10 or more
8/10 – Rated between 132 and 143
7/10 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (no winners)
6/10 – From the top 3 in the betting
6/10 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – French bred
6/10 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
6/10 – Favourites placed
5/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Ran at Haydock previously
3/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/10 – Trained by David Pipe
2/10 – Trained by Nick Williams

FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: The Nick Williams yard won this race in 2009 and also 12 months ago so his TEA FOR TWO (Bet here at 6/1 with Betfair) is certainly one for the shortlist. Jockey Lizzie Kelly gets on well with the horse and will strip a lot fitter for a recent run at Chepstow. Soft ground won’t be an issue and the slightly longer trip than last time is another plus in his favour. Of the rest, Shantou Bob improved all last season and rounded it off with a fair run in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival. However, the Pipe camp are another yard that like to target this race (won it 3 times in the last 10) and so their two – LOW KEY (Bet here at 25/1 with Boylesports) and BATAVIR (Bet here at 20/1 with Paddy Power) might also be worth small e/w interests at fair prices.

3.00 – Betfair Chase (Registered as The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f CH4

10 Previous runnings
9/10 – Won by and Irish (3) or French (6) bred horse
8/10 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
8/10 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Officially rating of 168 or higher
7/10 – Placed in the top three in their last race
7/10 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
7/10 – Won a Grade One chase before
6/10 – Ran at Haydock before
6/10 – Placed favourites
4/10 – Favourites
4/10 – Won by a previous winner of the race
4/10 – Ran at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
3/10 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/10 – Won last time out
The average winning price in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
The Paul Nicholls yard has won the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014 
Ruby Walsh has ridden the winner in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2012 

FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: Not many runners this year, but what the race lacks in numbers it certainly makes up for in quality. We’ve got the last three winners of the contest lining up again with the 2013 winner Cue Card and the 2012 & 2014 victor Silviniaco Conti heading to post. Cue Card got back to winning ways last time out at Wetherby when winning the Charlie Hall Chase – and that was his last win since taking this back in 2013. The Tizzard team have clearly got him back to somewhere near his best and looks a big player here. He had the Pipe pair – Dynaste and Ballynagour – in behind that day – not to mention Holywell – so can be expected to have their measure again. However, he might be hard-pressed to topple SILVINIACO CONTI (Bet here at 10/11 with Betfair) – who looks to win this race for a third time and give his trainer, Paul Nicholls, his seventh win in the contest. Nicholls went on record last week as saying that running Conti over hurdles last time out was the best thing he could have done. That run would have brought him on bundles for this and he’s a horse that does need a race these days before hitting top gear for the rest of the season. Noel Fehily knows the horse inside out and heads here as the clear highest-rated in the field with 5lbs in-hand.    


3.35 – Cash Out In Running With Betfair Handicap Chase Cl2 3m24y CH4

8 previous runs
8/8 – French (3) or Irish (5) bred
8/8 – Aged 9 or younger
6/8 – Carried 11-1 or more
6/8 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
6/8 – Won 2-3 times over fences
5/8 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
5/8 – From the top 3 in the betting
4/8 – Carried 11-11 or more in weight
4/8 –Winning distance – head or shorter
2/8 – Won their last race
2/8 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/8 – Favourites

FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: Venetia Williams took this in 2012 so her Royal Palladium, who was a good second last time out is a good place to start. The horse gets in here with a light-weight and is sure to have come on for it’s recent run (first since March). Evan Williams won the prize in 2011 with Cappa Bleu so his Firebird Flyer will be hoping to follow-up for the stable, while Malcolm Jefferson landed the money in 2010 and sends Sun Cloud to post. However, David Pipe’s VIEUX LION ROUGE (Bet here at 6/1 with William Hil) was impressive in winning twice over fences back in May and June so is the call. Into handicap company makes life harder, but the horse should have a lot more to come being just 6 years-old and has gone well fresh in the past – winning first time out in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Bottom-weight Toby Lerone is another that’s going in the right direction after a good Towcester win last time out, but needs another step forward here off 5lbs higher.




Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

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