Pendil Novices’ Chase Preview and Free Racing Tips

February 21, 2014 Thatsbettingtips Staff

Preview of the Pendil Novices' Chase and Free Racing Tips – Six runners line up to contest this year’s renewal of the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase. Previously won by the likes of Captain Chris, this race has attracted a good quality field with a number of the runners holding strong claims for victory. I’ve analysed the field and found my winner!

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The obvious starting point is Balder Succes (5/4 Stan James), the impressive winner of the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase at Warwick two weeks ago. This Alan King trained 6 year-old has had an impressive novice chasing campaign so far, winning three of his five starts this season over fences. His victory last time out was particularly impressive as he showed plenty of pace and good jumping ability to win over 2m around Warwick on heavy ground. Warwick is a good test of a horse’s jumping ability and balder Succes certainly dealt well with the task put in front of him. Rated 151, this horse is likely to miss the Cheltenham Festival but could well be one to follow come the Aintree Festival.

Since 2006, Paul Nicholls has only failed to train the winner of this race once (when Captain Chris claimed victory) and this year his hopes rest with Dark Lover (11/1 BetVictor). This horse claimed a fortuitous victory on his first start of the season when Balder Succes fell two out when clear. He fell on his next start but improved on that effort to finish second at Newbury, loosing by less than a length. His last start saw him finish sixth of eleven some 33 lengths behind the winner Indian Castle. His trainer’s record in the race is a massive positive but this horses’ form really doesn’t stack up against some of his rivals here. He has over 10lbs to find with the leadings lights in this race and it looks unlikely that he will find such a level of improvement.

Top on official ratings is FOX APPEAL (7/4 William Hill) who returns to a more suitable trip after finishing third at Doncaster over 2m1f when beaten by Valdez (another Alan King trained runner). Prior to that race, this horse had performed very well in finishing second to two good Paul Nicholls trained horses, Black Thunder and Wonderful Charm, and looked very interesting after his victory at Ascot. He comfortably accounted for Raya Star, jumped well and showed a good deal of speed to see off his rivals. His best form this season has come on right-handed tracks over a similar trip where there has been a strong pace on offer. Conditions should suit and his claims are there for all to see.

Charlie Longsden fields a Kempton specialist in the form of Loose Chips (9/1 bet365) who’s record reads 3 from 4 at this venue. All three victories have come at this distance on either soft or heavy ground so he should find his favoured conditions on Saturday. His form for this season doesn’t rate particularly highly and, despite winning his last start by 8 lengths, he is another who has over 10lbs to find with the principles. Loose Chips is likely to contest the lead and could well set a good strong gallop for the others to aim at. Kempton is a speedy track where accurate jumping is key and this horses’ best chances will come from grinding the others down from out in front.

The final two runners who make up the field are God’s Own (18/1 BetVictor) and Tchang Goon (1000/1 Stan James). The former is comfortably held Fox Appeal on their latest start (despite Fox Appeal not performing to his best) and the latter is so inferior that he has no chance whatsoever.

For me this race concerns two runners – Balder Succes and FOX APPEAL. Given the race conditions and price differences, I strongly favour the Emma Lavelle trained runner. Balder Succes doesn’t boast a particularly good record on right-handed tracks and could well lack the necessary stamina to deal with 2m4f in very testing ground. Furthermore, this horse likes to front-run and could well find his lead contested by Loose Chips. Both those horses jump far better when allowed to lead and dictate matters from the front. Fox Appeal on the other hand, likes to track the pace and thrives when running at a strong gallop. With the likely pace setters taking one another on, the race could well be set up for Emma Lavelle’s charge to take advantage when the going gets tough and the race nears its final stages. I was mightily impressed by Fox Appeal’s efforts this season prior to his disappointing run at Doncaster and I’m confident that given a race likely to be run to suit, on a track which he has previous winning form, he should prove to be a strong selection.

Pendil Novices’ Chase Tip –

FOX APPEAL (WIN) (7/4 William Hill)

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