Investec Derby 2013 Race Preview and Latest Betting Odds

The leading contenders will be putting the final touches to their preparations for the second classic of the season, which takes place on June 1^st at Epsom.  Here we reflect on some of the trial races and look forward to one of the key racing fixtures of the season, offering an each-way bet for the race.

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Dosage Profile of 2013 Epsom Investec Derby contenders

Dosage Profile (Brilliant – Intermediate – Classic – Solid – Professional) 

The dosage profile is a series of five numbers which shows how many points this horse has inherited from their sires in each category. The Brilliant and Intermediate category relate to a horses speed, whilst the Classic and Solid categories relate to stamina

Dosage Index – Calculates a ratio of the horses speed to its stamina The general rule is the higher the number, the speedier the horse. Eg. 2.0 means the horse has twice as much speed as stamina

Centre of Distribution – The COD is another indicator of speed and stamina. A positive COD indicates a preference for speed, whereas a negative COD indicates he they have more stamina points 

Sire: New Approach five-time Group 1 winner over 7-12f at 2-3 including the Derby.
Dam: Hymn Of The Dawn placed at 2 over 6f, half sister to Galantas( Group 1 placed over 8f in Canada, 2nd in 7f Group 2 Futurity Stakes at 2).
From family of Miss Oceana, six time Grade 1 winner in America over 7f-1m Half brother toComadoir Handicap winner over 7f.
 

Unbeaten in 7 starts and an impressive winner of the 2000 Guineas on his last run, he is undoubtedly the class horse in the race. With no standout opposition to him, it is easy to see why he is odds-on for the race however for all his positives, there is a big stamina question to answer. He was a winner over 5f on debut last season before winning the Group 2 Coventry Stakes over 6f at Royal Ascot. He has always shown plenty of speed and he steps up in trip markedly here by half a mile. On breeding, there is no strong indication that he is bred to stay this far. He is from a family which excels around a mile and although his sire won the Derby, he started his career over 7f and ran over 12f just the once before dropping back to 10f. His dosage profile, although not an exact science, also lent it self to stamina more than Dawn Approach; New Approach had 6 points in his stamina profile whereas as Dawn Approach has just 2. His class may see him through and it will be important that he settles early in the race if he is to have any chance. Strong chance regardless of his stamina given the opposition, but too short a price at odds on.

Sire: Teofilo dual Group 1 winner at 2 over 7f, retired due to injury.
Dam: Night Visit unraced daughter of Derby winner Sinndar/Moonlight Sail, who is a full sister toIrish Prize (Grade 1 winner over 8f in America) and Hatoof (Group 1 8-12f winner (inc 1000 Guineas)).
Half brother to Gleadhradh winner over 7f.
 

In the shadow of his stable-mate and a clear second string here. Ran well enough in the Dante in the trial for this race and looks more likely to have the requisite stamina for this test. He has ran well enough in decent company before but it would be a shock if he were to be good enough to win this.

Sire: Galileo 3 time Group 1 winner over 10-12f inc Derby .
Dam: Anna Karenina Listed winner over 9f, half sister to Aiden O’Brien trained Windsor Palace(Group 3 10f winner).
Full brother Precious Stone winner/Listed placed over 8f.
 

Is held in high regard by his connections and looks likely to be the first string of the Ballydoyle outfit this season. Undefeated in five races since his debut third, he has won twice this season beating subsequent Group 3 winner Sugar Boy and before comfortably beating Group 1 winning juvenile Loch Garman in the Derrinstown. He is workmanlike in his performances only ever doing just enough to win but he is consistent and he has beaten some smart rivals this season. A son of Galileo, he should have no problem with the extra 2f on what he has shown so far despite his dosage profile suggesting speed would be his forte. When comparing him to recent winners of the race his dosage profile is largely comparable to Motivator, a most impressive winner of this race back in 2005. There is nothing flashy about him but he is hard to knock and should run his race. For betting purposes however there is little value left in his price at around 5/1.

Sire: Galileo 3 time Group 1 winner over 10-12f inc Derby.
Dam: Love Me True Group 3 placed 2 year old over 7f, half sister to Grade 2 winner over 7f in America Bite The Bullet.
Half brother to Duke Of Marmalade (5 time Group 1 winner 10-12f inc King George.
 

Didn’t make it to the racecourse as a 2 year old but has impressed on two starts to date this season, especially when romping away with the Group 3 Chester Vase. Faced little opposition that day and didn’t always travel comfortably but quickened up nicely and bounded clear. He looks sure to stay this trip and more, with 8 points in his stamina profile, and little sign of him stopping at Chester over 1m3f. The undulations of Epsom may provide a test for him with his lack of experience and he will need to avoid being outpaced at a key point of the race coming down the hill. Still rates an unknown quantity and one of the more interesting contenders if he turns up on the day, with his stamina likely to bring him into contention late in the race. A dosage profile comparison sees him hold a very similar profile to his sire Galileo and he is certainly bred to be a champion over middle distances.

Sire: Galileo 3 time Group 1 winner over 10-12f inc Derby.

Dam: Massarra Listed winner/Group 2 and 3 placed over 6/7f. Daughter of French Oaks winner Rafha, half sister to Invincible Spirit (Sprint Cup 6f Group 1 winner), Sadian (dual Group 3 winner 12/13f inc. Ormonde, 7th in Derby) and Acts Of Grace (Group 2 12f winner).

Half brother to Group 1 winning 2 year old in France Nayarra (finished last in Oaks).
 

An impressive winner on his only start as a 2 year old he wasn’t see again until finishing a respectable 6th in the Guineas. He wasn’t quite able to go the pace and struggled to threaten the leaders so although he takes a big step up in trip here he may find this more suitable. His breeding suggests that 12f should be within his reach and his Guineas run would certainly back up the view that he does need a step up in trip to progress. He is another who is lightly raced and open to improvement if inexperience doesn’t get the better of him. Despite his lack of racing he has long featured near the top of the Derby market and could offer some each-way value. Interestingly, his dosage profile is similar to the average dosage profile of the Derby winners since 2000; he is not stamina laden but he should be fine over the trip and it is likely we haven’t seen the best of him yet.

Not a certain runner at this stage with the French Derby looking like a possible target whist the Irish 2000 Guineas is his immediate target. He has plenty of speed in his pedigree being out of a Listed sprint winner and with connections dropping him back to a mile a Derby trip looks increasingly unlikely. He was an impressive winner at Chester against a moderate field showing lots of pace to quicken away in the straight. Stamina would be a big question mark if he does turn up at Epsom but that is now looking increasingly unlikely; he may well make up into a leading 8-10f horse later in the season.

OCOVANGO

The French challenge this year is likely to come in the form of the unbeaten British bred Andre Fabre trained Ocovango. A Listed winner over 11f as a 2 year old he won a Group 3 contest on his seasonal return. It is not always easy to compare the French form with the British form but it could be significant that the race he won last time out as the same race Pour Moi won before winning the Derby in 2011. Winning over 11f in soft ground as a 2 year old indicates he should have no stamina issues over 12f and his dosage profile would support that. He has a very similar dosage profile to last year’s winner Camelot and he certainly rates an interesting contender despite this being a stronger race than he will have contested before.

CHOPIN

Sire: Santiago dual group 2 winner in Germany/Italy 8f.
Dam: Caucasienne daughter of Galileo, dual winner 12/13f.
From family of Grade 1 winner in America Red Giant (10f).
 

Needs to be supplemented for the race but that seems to be the plan at this stage for the German raider. An impressive winner of a Group 3 contest in Germany on his latest start, it is hard to quantify what he has achieved to date but the runner up from that race has gone on to finish 2nd in the German 2000 Guineas; Chopin beat him by 8L. His pedigree and dosage profile suggest he will stay 12f fine and connections appear bullish about his chances with Jamie Spencer set to take the ride. It is hard to gauge how good he is but connections must feel it is worth the large supplementary fee and are unlikely to be running him if they didn’t think he had a chance. He should not be underestimated and whilst it is hard to be confident about him a bold showing would not be the biggest shock.

LIBERTARIAN

Sire: New Approach five-time Gr1 winner over 7-12f at 2-3 inc Derby.
Dam: Intrum Morshaan Handicap winner over 16f, half sister to Grade 3 winner in America Coney Kitty (9f).
From family of 5 time Group 1 winner 9/10f inc. dual Eclipse/Juddmonte winner Halling Half brother to Group 3 winner 10f (and dual winner at Epsom) Prince Siegfried, and half brother to Listed winner in France Bigzam (13f).
 

Ran out a surprise winner of the Dante on his latest start in what is usually considered a key trial for this race; probably was not the strongest renewal this time around but he was well on top at the end. He is bred to stay very well and it may be he could make up into a St. Leger contender later in the season. He was a little outpaced about 3f out in the Dante but stuck to the task well and stayed on past his rivals. With stamina doubts over some in the field a similar scenario could play out here and it is likely this son of New Approach will be doing all his best work late on.  His dosage profile is similar to that of 2006 winner Sir Percy and in addition to that Libertarian has always looked like a stayer; he made his debut earlier in the season over 10f. Whether he quite has the class to win a Derby is up for debate but he will at least stay this trip very well and you fancy he would be shorter in the betting if Aiden O’Brien trained him.

Latest Derby Betting: (all odds courtesy of William Hill): 4/5 Dawn Approach, 4/1 Battle Of Marengo, 8/1 Ocovango, 10/1 Chopin, 10/1 Ruler Of The World, 16/1 Mars, 16/1 Libertarian, Trading Leather 33/1

E/W Selection: Ruler Of The World @ 10/1 with William Hill

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