Horse Racing Betting Tips – 3.10pm Jockey Club Stakes At Newmarket

Horse racing betting tips for the 3.10pm Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket. 

One of the highlights of Newmarket’s Guineas weekend is the Jockey Club Stakes over 1m 4f for 4 year-olds+.  This race is often used as a springboard for Group 1 contests later in the season.  Famous past winners of the race include double Ascot Gold Cup winner – Ardross, St Leger winners – Millenary and Sixties Icon, Arc winner – Marienbard and most recently Al Kazeem, who went on to win multiple Group 1 races.  Here are the key trends to note when making your selection.

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Trends – 

10 out of the last 10 winners were either 4 or 5 years-old.

10 out of the last 10 winners had raced at group level.

10 out of the last 10 winners had won a race over 1m2f.

10 out of the last 10 winners had run in a race over 1m4f.

10 out of the last 10 winners had run no more than 15 times.

10 out of the last 10 winners had won no more than 5 races.

7 out of the last 8 winners were officially rated 110 or higher (Getaway and Shirocco had no rating)

8 out of the last 10 winners were sent off 11/4 or shorter.

7 out of the last 10 winners were placed in the top 3 last time out.

7 out of the last 10 winners had won at Listed level or higher.

With the defection of Joshua Tree we are left with eight runners in the race and we’ll start with the aforementioned’s stablemate – Times Up (25/1 Coral).  He has been a valiant servant for Ed Dunlop winning the Doncaster Cup two seasons in a row and has been ever-present in the staying ranks for a while now.  This race looks to be on the short side and is more likely being used as a prep run for the big staying races throughout the season. 

Brass Ring (7/1 bet365) is an unexposed type for trainer John Gosden and he has been thrown in at the deep end here.  He picked up a nice win at Kempton to start his season but this is a massive step-up in class.  It is sure to be a tough ask for the horse and the trends are also a negative for the horse.  I suspect that the he may be taken off his feet a bit and improve throughout the season. 

Gospel Choir (4/1 William Hill) is another horse on the up and tries his hand again at Group level after not making an impact of late.  He ran a good enough race at the course last time and the distance this time will suit a bit more which are positives but he only meets six of the trends listed and that is not enough for me to be persuaded to back him.  Havana Beat (25/1 Coral) and Renew (20/1 SkyBet) are good horses in their own right but this is a big step up for the pair.

Pether’s Moon (14/1 Betfred) is probably the most interesting outsider and will be a nice price for each-way backers.  He meets seven of the trends and the form when beating Gatewood by 3 ½ lengths is pretty solid.  The horse is constantly improving and one to watch in the future and could be worth e/w interest here.

That leaves the two Godolphin horses TRADING LEATHER (11/10 SkyBet) and Penglai Pavillion (9/2 Coral). The former in particular looks to be in a different universe to the horses lining up here.  An Irish Derby winner with placing’s in four other Group 1’s of the highest class means that he brings by far the best form into the race.  If returning fully fit, then he really is the one to beat and I expect the horse to win here before going on to much bigger things.  Penglai Pavillion was 5^th in last year’s Arc De Triomphe but disappointed when well fancied in Dubai.  The fact he only ran once in Dubai says to me that he probably had a few problems and is best watched on debut in the UK but again, he looks to be another who will improve as the season goes on.

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For me this race revolves around TRADING LEATHER.  If he repeats the form he showed last season he wins, and I’m sure trainer Jim Bolger will have him right on song.  Pether’s Moon will be one for the each-way punters around but I’m sticking my neck on the line and putting up Trading Leather as my nap.

Jockey Club Stakes Betting Tip – 

TRADING LEATHER (WIN) (NAP) (11/10 SkyBet)

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