Glorious Goodwood Day Three Betting Tips and Trends
As we head into the third day of the 5-DAY Glorious Goodwood Meeting this Thursday our horse racing tipping expert – Andy Newton – has all the key trends and stats, plus his free Goodwood horse racing tips.
We’ll be with you through the week to give you our best bets and tips, plus all the trends from the LIVE Channel 4 races at Glorious Goodwood 2015………
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Glorious Goodwood Betting Tips: Thursday 30th July 2015
2.05 – Land Rover Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m1f192y CH4
12/12 – Had won between 1-3 times before
11/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Winning distance – 1 ¾ lengths or less
11/12 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
10/12 – Rated between 91-99
8/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
8/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/12 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
7/12 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
7/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
6/12 – Had raced at Goodwood before
5/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Trained by John Gosden
3/12 – Trained by Mark Johnston (inc last 2 runnings)
2/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Ridden by William Buick
2/12 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
VERDICT: Trainer Mark Johnston has won the last two runnings of this race and landed the prize four times since 2006, so his runners, Resonant and Triple Dip are certainly ones for the shortlist. However, another yard that have done well in this race is John Gosden’s. They took the honours in 2007 and 2010 so his previous course and distance winner, KEBLE (Bet here at 8/1 with Bet365), is the call. This 3 year-old is yet to finish out of the top three from 5 career starts, plus won well here at the track two runs back. He’s just 5lbs higher here, but seems to be on the up still and Frankie Dettori, who has ridden the horse twice in the past, is back doing the steering.
BET NOW – KEBLE (e/w)
GOODWOOD OFFER: Paddy Power will refund your bet if your horse finishes second or third in today's 2.05 – MORE HERE
2.35 – Qatar Richmond Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f CH4
13/13 – Had won 1 or 2 races before
12/13 – Had won over 5 or 6f before
10/13 – Never raced at Goodwood before
11/13 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
10/13 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Placed last time out
9/13 – Won by a Feb or March foal
8/13 – Won their previous race
6/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Trained by Richard Hannon (inc last 5 of last 7 runnings)
5/13 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
2/13 – Trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
VERDICT: The Richard Hannon team have a cracking record in this race – winning it 5 times in the last 7 runnings. They pin their hopes on Log Out Island, who sets a fair standard after a few good Group Two placed efforts. However, the horse does still need to prove himself over this 6f trip with his only career win coming over 5f. Air Force Blue was a 2 length second in the Coventry Stakes over this trip so enters the mix, while Godolphin’s Steady Pace should not be far away. That horse gets a 3lb pull for the length SHALAA (Bet here at 9/4 with William Hill) beat him in the July Stakes last time out, but we think the Gosden horse can uphold that form on these slightly worse terms.
BET NOW – SHALAA
3.10 – Qatar Goodwood Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m CH4
11/13 – Aged 5 or older
11/13 – Placed last time out
9/13 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
9/13 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
9/13 – Had won over at least 2m before
8/13 –Ran at Ascot last time out
8/13 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
7/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Had run at Goodwood before
5/13 – Won their previous race
4/13 – Won by Godolphin
2/13 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
VERDIICT: Michael Bell’s Big Orange will be popular after his recent gutsy Newmarket win. He’s the highest-rated in the line-up and actually gets weight from Trip To Paris too. However, Big Orange does have a few questions to answer surrounding the trip and so the safe call is to stick with TRIP TO PARIS (Bet here at 4/1 with William Hill). Ed Dunlop’s 4 year-old has been a real improver this term after winning the Chester Cup and Ascot Gold Cup. We know he stays this 2m distance and further so that will be a huge asset and at just 4 years-old there could even be more to come from him.
BET NOW – TRIP TO PARIS
3.45 – Markel Insurance Fillies’ Stakes (Registered As The Lillie Langtry Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f CH4
11/12 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
9/12 – Had raced 2 or more times already that season
9/12 – Finished in the top three last time out
9/12 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/12 – Unplaced favourites
6/12 – Had run at Goodwood before
5/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
VERDICT: 9 of the last 10 winners of this race were aged 5 or younger, with 4 year-olds winning 50% of the last 10 renewals. It’s also not been a bad race for the punters with the last two favourites going in, while 8 of the last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting. Being run over 1m6f then staying the trip is a key plus and there are only four previous distance winners in the line-up – Sweeping Up, Chesil Beach, Alwilda and KALDERA (Bet here at 9/1 with Paddy Power) – it’s the last-named horse we like the most. This German raider was third in a Group Two over in Germany last time and has won both her trie over this 1m6f trip. She the top-rated in the line-up due to her recent good runs and acts on a variety of different ground – Martin Harley knows the horse well after riding her last time.
BET NOW – KALDERA (e/w)
Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays
Thatsbettingtips Staff
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