Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends – Saturday 9th Jan 16
Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends – Saturday 9th Jan 16
A jam-packed Saturday ahead with the C4 cameras at Kempton and Chepstow – as always we’ve got all the LIVE races covered with the key trends, plus free horse racing tips.
The Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton Park, plus the rescheduled Welsh Grand National from Chepstow are the feature races this Saturday, plus the C4 cameras are also at Wincanton, so a busy day ahead and as always we’ve got all the LIVE C4 races covered with free horse racing tips and free horse trends for the main races.
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Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RUK/C4)
2.00 – williamhill.com Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y CH4
2 previous runnings
Alan King won the race in 2015
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014
2/2 – Favourites
2/2 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
Nicky Henderson has a 31% (+£70) record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 22% record with his chasers at the track
Oliver Sherwood is just 2 from 27 with his chasers at the track
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: Philip Hobbs took this race in 2014 with Captain Chris and will be looking to follow that up with his Wishfull Thinking here. The horse is the highest-rated in the line-up but at 13 years-old now is not getting any younger. Therefore, Paul Nicholls’ PTIT ZIG (Bet here at 4/7 with 888Sport) could be the answer here. This improving 7 year-old took a tumble last time out at Huntingdon and despite looking held at the time
still ran a solid 1 ¾ length second to the King George runner-up, Vautour, the time before. The soft ground should be fine as he’s won on this surface many times in the past so should take all the beating.
2.35 – William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f CH4
14/14 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
13/14 – Aged 7 or younger
13/14 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
10/14 – Had never won a hurdles race over this trip or longer before
11/14 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
11/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Winning distance 2 ¼ lengths or less
9/14 – Irish (5) or French (4) bred
9/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Carried 10-11 or less
9/14 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/14 – Aged 6 years-old
8/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Had run at Kempton before (4 won)
4/14- Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Nick Williams
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (34 runnings) 30 winners have been aged 7 or younger
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: The Paul Nicholls team have a cracking recent record in this contest – winning it in 2008 and 2014 – so their entry, Ibis Du Rheu, is respected. This 5 year-old was an excellent second last time at Newbury in soft conditions and off just a 4lb higher rating there should be more improvement to come with this only his sixth start. That said, 7 of the last 8 winners were aged 6 or older, so that’s a bad stat for the Nicholls horse, while Nicky Henderson’s Bivouac, who, despite winning last time out, is also a 5 year-old. Harry Fry’s Unowhatimeanharry is in unstoppable form at present with three recent wins and although he’s up only a pound from that run connections are opting for a 7lb conditional which gives him a decent-looking rating. He’s got to be one for the shortlist, but with the going set to come up soft, or even heavy, then WESTREN WARRIOR (e/w) (Bet here at 5/1 with Paddy Power) is the pick. This Dr Richard Newland-trained 7 year-old was an easy winner at Lingfield last month, but that win came in desperate conditions so we know he’ll handle the ground. Yes, this is a big hike-up in grade, but the horse has just 10-0 and with this just his fifth start over hurdles then there should be more improvement to come. Jockey Will Kennedy, who has ridden the horse in his last three starts, continues in the plate.
3.10 – William Hill – Bet On The Move Handicap Chase Cl2 3m CH4
Just two previous runnings
Philip Hobbs won the race 12 months ago
No winning favourite et
Nicky Henderson has a 35% record with this chasers at the track
Alan King is just 2 from 40 with his chasers at the track
Colin Tizzard is just 2 from 31 with his chasers at the track
Paul Webber has a 26% record with his chasers at the track
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: The Dr Richard Newland yard took this race in 2015 so his runner Seefood will be hoping to follow-up, but does head here off the back of a few poor runs so needs to step up a bit. HARRY’S FAREWELL (e/w) (Bet here at 12/1 with Ladbrokes) was an early faller last time out but he did win well the time before that to suggest he’s one to keep on the right side of in this race. Of the rest, the Philip Hobbs team won this in 2014 so their Kruzhlinin is another that’s respected on debut for this yard, while Chase The Spud was a solid second at Lingfield in heavy ground last time out. He’s been given enough time to get over that race, which was in gruelling conditions and off just 4lbs higher should not be far away.
3.45 – William Hill – Home of Betting Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m CH4
8/8 – Had won over at least 2 hurdles before
8/8 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
7/8 – Aged 6 or older
7/8 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
6/8 – Aged 6 years-old
6/8 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
6/8 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
5/8 – Finished 4th or better last time out
3/8 – Irish bred
3/8 – Winning favourites
2/8 – Returned a double-figure price
1/8 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/1
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: Jumps Road catches the eye for the Colin Tizzard yard after a good recent third at Exeter, but a horse that ran a really solid race last time out at Lingfield was TARA BRIDGE (Bet here at 4/1 with Betfair). This Chris Gordon-trained 8 year-old was second to another of today’s runners – Dormouse – but has a 10lb weight pull for that run with the winner and is expected to reverse that form on ground that will suit. Of the rest, the Pipe yard run two – Stars Over The Sea and Heath Hunter, with the last-named looking their slightly better chance. Hollywood All Star is another horse that heads here in cracking form after wins at Bangor and Uttoxeter, but a 10lb rise will make life harder still. So we’ll stick with Tara Bridge with the Gordon yard also boasting an impressive 21% record with their runners here.
Chepstow Horse Racing Betting Trends (ATR/C4)
1.45 – Coral Welsh Grand National (A Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y CH4
13/13 – Aged 9 or younger
13/13 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
13/13 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
13/13 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
12/13 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/13 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
11/13 – Aged 8 or younger
10/13 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
9/13 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
8/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
7/13 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
7/13 – Irish bred
6/13 – Unplaced favourites
5/13 – French bred
5/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Had run in the Welsh National before
4/13 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
2/13 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
1/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 10.6/1
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: We think the Twiston-Davies stable look to have another good chance of landing the Welsh National. The yard won this prize in 1997 and 2003 with two horses that also won the Aintree Grand National during their careers – Binderee and Earth Summit. So, taking that into account their COGRY (e/w) (Bet here at 9/1 with Paddy Power) stands out and is the call. This 6 year-old has time on his side and was a solid fourth last time out at Cheltenham in a Grade Three Chase. He was behind a useful sort that day and with that being his first run for around 8 months then we can expect him to have come on for that. Soft (or worse) ground will be fine for this horse and having shown a lot of stamina in past races that’s another big asset. We’ve already touched on the yard knowing what sort of horse it takes to go well in a race of this nature and over this gruelling trip, so we are expecting a big run from this improving stayer. Of the others, last year’s Welsh National champion – Emperor’s Choice – is another to look at after he returned to the track with a win at Haydock last month. The Venetia Williams-trained 8 year-old is still improving but off a 10lb higher mark than 12 months ago will need to be.
2.20 – coral.co.uk Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m11y CH4
11/11 – Had won over at least 2m hurdles before
11/11 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
11/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Won between 1-2 times in the past
10/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/11 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – French bred
6/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Ran at Auteuil last time out
3/11 – Ran at Newbury last time out
2/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 5/1
FREE HORSE RACING TIPS: A good race in prospect here but we’ve been impressed with the Philip Hobbs-trained JABOLTISKI (Bet here at 9/2 with Skybet) of late. This 4 year-old has won both his UK hurdles starts in the fashion of an improving sort and, more importantly, won in heavy ground last time out. Connections have given the horse enough time to get over that last win and conditions look ideal – with Richard Johnson continuing in the saddle that’s a further plus.
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Thatsbettingtips Staff
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