York Free Racing Tips & Trends – Friday 21st August 2015

As we move into the third day of the 4-day York Ebor Meeting with some more top-notch horse racing action to enjoy. The C4 horse racing team are at the course to cover four LIVE races, including the Nunthorpe Stake and Lonsdale Cup.

Horse racing tipping expert, Andy Newton, gives you his free horse racing tips, big race trends and best bets this Friday (21st Aug) from York.

Best Bookmaker Offers (Ts&C's apply)

WILLIAM HILL: If your horse comes second in any of the LIVE C4 races they will give you your money back (mobile, app, racing post app) (up to (£25)

PADDY POWER: Money back if your horse finishes second – ALL YORK RACES (up to £25)

BET365: Back any winner at 4/1 or bigger on any of the LIVE C4 races and they will give you a FREE BET to the same stake on the next live C4 race (up to £50)

BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK: Back any winner at 3/1 or bigger on any LIVE C4 race and they will give you a FREE BET to the same stake (up to £25)

888SPORT.com – Money back if your beaten into second by a horse priced 20/1 or bigger! Upto £25 on all UK flat and NH races.

CORAL: Money back if beaten into second by a HEAD(or less) – up to £/€25 per race.

Today’s Horse Racing Tips – FRIDAY 21st August 2015

1.55 – Sky Bet First Race Special Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f CH4

10/11 – Aged 5 or younger
10/11 – Had won over at least 1m2f before (5 over 1m4f)
9/11 – Carried 9-5 or less
9/11 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
9/11 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
9/11 – Had won at least twice on the flat before
9/11 – Unplaced last time out
8/11 – Won from stall 8 or higher
8/11 – Returned a double-figure price
8/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/11 – Ran at either Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (3) last time out
5/11 – Had run at York before
4/11 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (2) or Mark Johnston (2)
2/11 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 11/1

VERDICT: The Charles Hills team took this 12 months ago and will be hoping to follow-up with Xinbama. The Sir Michael Stoute team have a cracking record in the race too and they pin their hopes on TOP TUG (Bet here at 6/1 with Bet365). This horse is ridden by Frankie Dettori and despite some poor runs of late is lightly-raced this season and is worth another try over this 1m4f trip. Will couple him up with MEMORIAL DAY (Bet here at 8/1 with Ladbrokes) – a horse that has won it’s last two in decent fashion and gets in here with a light-weight. The horse is only having it’s fifth career run and but does have plenty of the key stats in his favour – James Doyle is a further plus in the saddle.

2.30 – Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m88y CH4

10/11 – Priced 7/1 or shorter
10/11 – Had 4 or more career wins
9/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Favourites placed
9/11 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
9/11 – Won a Listed or better class race before
9/11 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
8/11 – Raced 3 or more times that season
8/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/11 – Had run at York before (6 won)
6/11 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
5/11 – Favourites to win
3/11 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/11 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2
Note: The 2008 renewal was run at Newbury

VERDICT: Goodwood Cup winner, Big Orange takes on Trip To Paris again – who was only ½ a length back in third that day. Trip to Paris has to give the Michael Bell horse 4lbs again so there shouldn’t be a lot between them again, but the interesting one could be TAC DE BOISTRON (Bet here at 13/2 with Betfred). This horse needs the ground softer, which he’ll hopefully get and any more rain would be a massive plus. We can forget his last run in the Ascot Gold Cup on ground way too firm. This grey have had 2 months to get over that run, and he’s the main pick should the ground remain good-to-soft or get worse. If not then the safe call is to stick with BIG ORANGE (Bet here at 5/1 with Skybet), who did little wrong last time out and looks like there could be more to come too.

3.05 – Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f CH4

11/12 – Failed to win last time out
11/12 – Aged 5 or younger
9/12 – Winning distance 1 length or less
10/12 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
10/12 – Never run at York before
10/12 – Drawn in stalls 4 to 8 (inc)
10/12 – Priced 7/1 or shorter
10/12 – Had 4 or more runs that season
8/12 – Aged 4 years-old
4/12 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
4/12 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/12 – Won by Andrew Balding
2/12 – Won by Sir Michael Stoute
1/12 – Placed horses from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

VERDICT: The 3 year-old RICHARD PANKHURST (Bet here at 13/2 with Boylesports) has not been out for 426 days, but on the form of his last win at Ascot then he could take a lot of beating. The John Gosden yard are sure to have got him fit and ready for this and he also gets a lot of weight from the older horses. He’s got some fancy entries later in the year, so really would need to be going close here to fulfil those engagements. If he does need the run then Richard Hannon’s Tupi looks sure to play a part, while the Andrew Balding team have won this in 2014 and 2009 – they bid to add to that with Intransigent. The final one worth a mention is the David O’Meara-trained So Beloved – he’s one of just two previous CD winners in the field and comes here after taking the Betfred Mile at Goodwood.

3.40 – Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 5f CH4

11/13 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
11/13 – Had won over 5f before
11/13 – Came from stall 11 or lower
10/13 – Had an official rating of 108 or more
9/13 – Winning distance less than a length
9/13 – Favourites to finish in the top 4
9/13 – Had run at the course before
8/13 – Had 5 or more runs already that season
8/13 – Were previous Group race winners
6/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/13 – Ran at Goodwood last time out (inc 5 of last 7)
5/13 – Placed horses from stall 11
4/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/13 – Placed horses from stall 1 (3^rd in 2003 & 2012)
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 18/1

VERDICT: Blink and you’ll miss this one – the ground has gone against the 2010 and 2014 winner, Sole Power, while at the age of 8 the horse hasn’t quite looked himself this season – age might just be catching up with him. Take Cover was a good second in the Group Two King George Stakes last time out and should back a bold bid, but his conqueror, MUTHMIR (Bet here at 6/1 with Ladbrokes), could have his measure again and should go close. However, this race revolves around the US speedball – ACAPULCO (Bet here at 2/1 with Betway). This 2 year-old will be hoping to become the first juvenile to land this race since Kingsgate Native in 2007, but this Wesley Ward-trained horse was impressive when winning the Queen Mary last time out at Royal Ascot and she gets bundles of weight from the others. The softer ground might not be ideal, but if the ground dries out she might just burn the finish out of the others.