Saturday’s Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: 12th March
Saturday's Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends: 12th March – The C4 cameras are at Sandown racecourse this Saturday that include the Imperial Cup while they also head to Wolverhampton racecourse for the Lincoln Trial – As always we’ve got all the big race trends and stats for ALL of the LIVE races, plus our free horse racing tips – we hope they help you narrow down the fields and highlight a few winners.
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Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)
2.00 – 30th European Breeders´ Fund "National Hunt" Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f173y CH4
13/13 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
12/13 – Carried 10-11 or more
11/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Returned 8/1 or less in the betting
10/13 – Rated 128 or less
10/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/13 – Irish bred
9/13 – Unplaced favourites
8/13 – Aged 6 years-old
7/13 – Had won over this trip before
5/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Won by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Won by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Won by the Pipe yard
1/13 – Winning favourites
1/13 – Winners that went onto run at Cheltenham (3rd Martin Pipe)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: The Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson yards have good records in this race – winning 4 of the last 10 runnings between them. With that in mind then the Paul Nicholls-trained ACALA (e/w) (Bet here at 12/1 with Bet365) is worth a second glance and heads here after winning well at Fontwell. Yes, this is harder, but Harry Cobden takes off a handy 7lbs and now he’s got that win under his belt there could be more to come. Henderson runs DIVINE SPEAR (e/w) (Bet here at 10/1 with Skybet), who, despite being beaten last time out, should like the return to softer ground and can turn the tables on the horse that beat him that day – Chic Theatre.
2.35 – Kings Mistral Handicap Chase Cl3 3m37y CH4
12/13 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
11/13 – Carried 11-1 or more
11/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences
10/13 – Rated between 125-134
10/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Aged 8 or older
9/13 – Placed favourites
8/13 – Unplaced last time out
8/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
7/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
4/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/13 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
2/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/13 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: 10 of the last 13 runnings of this race went to a horse aged 8 or older and were rated between 125-134. With that in mind, last year’s winner – FINANCIAL CLIMATE (e/w) (Bet here at 11/1 with Skybet) – catches the eye. Yes, the horse has been disappointing of late he’s one of just two previous course and distance winners in the race and there is a strong chance that the Sherwood camp would have had this race as a target for some time. Of the rest, the dour stayer Relax is another to consider being the other previous CD winner in the field and will love the ground.
3.10 – Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y CH4
13/13 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
12/13 – Carried 10-13 or less
12/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/13 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Aged 6 or younger
10/13 – Rated 124 or higher
9/13 – Carried 10-7 or less
9/13 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara – Fred Winter)
9/13 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
8/13 – Finished in the top two last time out
8/13 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
6/13 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
6/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – French bred
5/13 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 2 had won there before
5/13 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
1/13 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 11/1
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: The Imperial Cup normally has an attractive bonus attached to it from the sponsors should the winner go onto win any race at the Cheltenham Festival, but that’s unlikely this year as Sandown only found a backer for the race this week. However, we are still set for a cracking renewal with around £40,000 on offer to the winner, plus with the Oliver Sherwood-trained Rayvin Black entered then this brings a bit of quality to proceedings. But, he has to pay a penalty for that as he’s been lumbered with top-weight here and has to give a stone+ to all the other horses. We know, however, this 7 year-old adores it here at Sandown and has improved loads this season so should not be far away – there are certainly worse each-way options in the race. That said, the trends suggest looking for horses with a lower weight to carry as 12 of the last 13 won with 10-13 or less, while 9 of the last 13 only had 10-7 or less.
The other key trends to take into account are that 12 of the last 13 winners had raced in the last 6 weeks, while 10 of the last 13 were aged 6 or younger. The Harry Whittington-trained Affaire D’ Honneur is sure to be popular with punters after running on well at Newbury last time out in the Betfair Hurdle to be fourth. But he’s yet to win a race and you’ll notice from the trends that 12 of the last 13 winners had won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously. The Philip Hobbs-trained 5 year-old – For Good Measure – ticks most boxes regarding the stats, and has just 10-7 to carry. He comes here on a three-timer after wins at Uttoxeter and Exeter, but a 10lb rise for that lastest win means that he needs a bit more. The only real negative stat against him is that his last run was 86 days ago – most winners ran within the last 6 weeks! Gary Moore’s CLAYTON (Bet here at 7/1 with Paddy Power) is another that has plenty going for him and was impressive when winning my 16 lengths at Plumpton last time. He’s got just 10-0 in weight and being rated 100+ on the flat then he certainly is one to consider – despite being a 7 year-old (just outside the age trend). The final play in the contest, and one at a larger price, is KNOCKGRAFFON (e/w) (Bet here at 14/1 with Boylesports). This 6 year-old comes from the Dan Skelton team and was a decent second on his handicap debut at Leicester last time out. There should be more to come after a 46 day absence and is yet to finish out of the first three in all his five career starts to date.
3.45 – EBF Stallions/TBA Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) Cl1 2m110y CH4
12/12 – Had won at least one NH Flat race before
11/12 – 1ST or 2ND last time out
9/12 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/12 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Had won just once before (NH Flat race)
8/12– Won last time out
6/12 – Aged 5 years-old
1/12 – Winning favourites
Won 12 months ago by Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: The Willie Mullins camp took this race 12 months ago so anything they send over should be noted (they are 4 from 9, 44% at the track), however, COPPER KAY (Bet here at 7/4 with Betfred) has been hugely impressive in winning his two NH Flat starts this term, including a 4 ½ length victory in a decent race at Cheltenham back in November. Of the rest, there are plenty of other promising-looking types in the race, so the market might be a good guide, but Alan King often does well in these races so his Cajun Fiddle is another to note.
Wolverhampton Horse Racing Trends (ATR/C4)
2.15 – Ladbrokes Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y CH4
13/13 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Won over a mile before
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
11/13– Won at least three times before
10/13 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
8/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/13 – Came from stall 9 or higher
6/13 – Aged 5 years-old
5/13 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
4/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/13 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
3/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: A tricky race but the stats suggest looking for horses that have winning form over a mile and that had raced within the last 6 weeks. Running at Lingfield last time out is another big plus, while the favourites have been placed in 8 of the last 13 runnings. Horses aged 6 or younger have also gone best, while those drawn 9 or higher have the slightly better record too. Jamie Spencer has a good record in the race and he rides Intrude here, but a horse that ticks a lot of the trends is SI SENOR (e/w) (Bet here at 7/1 with Coral). This 5 year-old was a close second at Lingfield last time out and off just a 2lb higher mark should be bang-there again.
2.50 – Ladbrokes Lady Wulfruna Stakes (AW Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f32y CH4
8/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Had won over 7f before
8/9 – Had won at least 4 times before
6/9 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
6/9 – Rated 105 or higher
7/9 – Placed favourites
7/9 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
6/9 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
5/9 – Unplaced last time out
6/9 – Raced at Lingfield last time out
5/9 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
3/9 – Winning favourite
2/9 – Trained by Marco Botti
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1
Sovereign Debt won the race 12 months ago
Chookie Royale won the race in 2014
THATSBETTINGTIPS VERDICT: Chookie Royale took this prize in 2014 so is certainly one for the shortlist. Kelinni would be going close on these terms, but has not been out for 161 days. So the safe call might be to stick with last year’s winner – SOVEREIGN DEBT (Bet here at 7/2 with William Hill) – This Dandy Nicholls-trained horse was an excellent second in France in a Listed race last time out and before that was a close fourth to the decent Big Baz. He’s the only CD winner in the field and that counts for a lot.
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Thatsbettingtips Staff
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