Royal Ascot: Dawn Approach Is Back, Latest Betting Odds and Analysis For The St James’s Palace Stakes

One of the highlights of Royal Ascot for many could take place on the opening day of the meeting in the shape of the St James’s Palace Stakes, run over 1 mile for 3 year old colts.

News was broken today that Dawn Approach looks set to take his place in the race following his Epsom Derby ‘flop’, and is now vying for favouritism at the top of the market alongside Irish 2000 Guineas winner, Magician.

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The trainer of Dawn Approach (7/4 with Bet Victor), Jim Bolger, has been very positive about his chances of returning to the winner’s enclosure following his run in the Derby. In that race he went off at a very short 5/4 and was well backed by many, however he wasn’t just beaten that day, he finished stone last (12th) in the field. The Derby was perhaps too bigger ask for DA, the furthest distance he had tried prior to the 1m 4f at Epsom was 1m at Newmarket when he won the 2000 Guineas. He returns to that trip at Royal Ascot for this race and if he can produce the same form that won him the 2000 Guineas at HQ by 5 lengths, he goes here with a massive chance. He was unbeaten until his visit to Epsom and he has won on a variety of conditions, from Yielding, Soft in Places over 5f at Curragh too Good to Firm quick ground at Newmarket for his 2000 Guineas victory. He uncharacteristically raced keenly last time out and he will still need to settle better here if he wants to win the race, but if that last performance is put down as a one off he is still a strong form pick.

Back in 4th that day at Newmarket was Toronado who is currently top price 5/1 with Ladbrokes. Toronado was fancied to be the biggest danger to Dawn Approach in the 2000 Guineas following his success in the Craven Stakes at the same course. In the Craven, the horse showed plenty of speed and stayed on strongly to beat Havana Gold by 4 lengths under Richard Hughes. However on his return to racing following that victory, he was disappointing, eventually finishing 7 ½ lengths behind Dawn Approach. Connections think that he is better than his performance that day, and if he can rekindle the same form that saw him powering to victory in the Craven, he also comes here with a live chance; however he does have to improve to get in front of the market leaders.

Dawn Approaches biggest danger looks to be Magician (13/8 with Betfred). Magician won the Irish 2000 Guineas on only his 3rd start and punters were equally impressed as Dawn Approaches victory in the English equivalent. He eventually beat stable mate Gale Force Ten by 3 ½ lengths, also on Good to Firm ground. Magician ran that race in 1min 36.81s whereas Dawn Approach ran his victory in 1min 35.84s, so based on timings there is very little to choose between these (although track differences have to be taken into account), especially when you consider that both horses were comfortably clear in the final stages and probably had more to give. Prior to the Irish 2000, Magician won over further when tackling 1m 2f in the Dee Stakes at Chester but rather than be tempted by a tilt at the Derby over 1m 4f or the French equivalent over 1m2f, connections decided to stick to a mile and make use of his pace. If there is a horse to find any kinks on Dawn Approach then the Ballydoyle runner may be the one to do so.

At a slightly bigger price Mshawish (25/1 with Bet Victor) may have an each way chance. He was 4th home in the Prix Du Jockey Club and although he should be respected coming over the channel, it doesn’t appear an obvious move dropping back in trip given they way he finished his race that day after being outpaced.

But for the winner, it looks set to be between Magician, Dawn Approach and Toronado. For myself, I will cross Toronado off that shortlist. I think he has to improve a great deal if he is to get closer to Dawn Approach than he did at Newmarket. That was not his true running and if all is well now he’s likely to give a good account of himself, but fall just short again here. Magician and Dawn Approach are very hard to split; Magician comes to the track fresh on the back of his Irish 2000 Guineas victory, whereas Dawn Approach has something to prove after his poor run in the Derby. I don’t think Jim Bolger would rush Dawn Approach back if he didn’t think the horse wasn’t ready, and for that reason I’ll side with the Godolphin runner as my selection.

Selection

DAWN APPROACH @ 7/4 with Bet Victor

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Check out the latest odds for the St James’s Palace Stakes here