Investec Oaks 2013 Race Preview and Latest Betting Odds

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Whilst Dawn Approach is a strong market leader for the Investec Derby, the fillies’ equivalent has a far more open look to it.

Here we reflect on some of the trial races, analyse the contenders pedigrees and look forward to one of the key racing fixtures of the season, offering a free horse racing tip for the race.

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Dosage Profile of 2013 Epsom Investec Oaks contenders

 

Horse

Dosage Profile

Dosage Points

Dosage Index

COD

Liber Nauticus

3-0-8-3-0

14

1.00

0.21

Moth

8-0-16-4-0

28

1.33

0.43

Secret Gesture

4-2-14-4-0

24

1.18

0.25

Banoffee

3-2-7-2-0

14

1.55

0.43

Say

4-0-16-4-0

24

1.00

0.17

Talent

3-0-13-4-0

20

0.90

0.10

Madame Defarge

4-0-6-2-0

12

1.40

0.50

The Lark

2-1-16-6-1

26

0.73

-0.12

Dosage Profile (Brilliant – Intermediate – Classic – Solid – Professional) 

The dosage profile is a series of five numbers which shows how many points this horse has inherited from their sires in each category. The Brilliant and Intermediate category relate to a horses speed, whilst the Classic and Solid categories relate to stamina.

Dosage Index – Calculates a ratio of the horses speed to its stamina The general rule is the higher the number, the speedier the horse. Eg. 2.0 means the horse has twice as much speed as stamina.

Centre of Distribution – The COD is another indicator of speed and stamina. A positive COD indicates a preference for speed, whereas a negative COD indicates he they have more stamina points.

 

SECRET GESTURE

Sire: Galileo 3 time Group 1 winner over 10-12f inc Derby. 
Dam: Shastye dual winner and Listed placed over 12f, half-sister to Sagamix (Group 1 winner inc. Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, 12f) and Sagacity (Group 1 winning 2 year old over 10f). 
 

Smartly bred filly who won a Listed Oaks’ Trial at Lingfield in impressive fashion on her seasonal reappearance. She is officially rated 4lb superior to the rest of the field and is one of just three fillies who is rated 100+; 7 of the last 10 winners were rated 100+ going into the race. She is bred to be a classic performer being a daughter of Galileo and has no stamina worries as she has already shown on the racecourse. She has a similar dosage profile to last year’s winner Was and there is no obvious flaws in her make-up. Qatar Racing have recently bought a half share in her and she will run in their colours and they must be hopeful they can secure a second Classic of the season after Just The Judge’s success in the Irish 1000 Guineas. At around 5/2 (with Ladbrokes), she looks sure to be in the mix and is probably a worthy favourite.


MOTH

Sire: Galileo 3 time Group 1 winner over 10-12f inc Derby. 
Dam: Pieds De Plume Placed over 8f, half-sister to Groom Dancer (Group 1 winner in France over 11f) and Tagel (Group 3 winner in France over 9f). 
Three-parts-sister to Listed winners Sail (Cheshire Oaks winner) and Rave Reviews (10f winner and Group 1 runner up in Italy). Half-sister to Hearthstead Maison (Group 3 winner over 10f). 
 

Moth struggled to make an impact during her two year old campaign when twice a beaten favourite but she has always been held in high regard by connections and her run in the Guineas showed us why. A staying on third behind Sky Lantern she looks to be crying out for a step up in trip and although this is quite a marked step up, her breeding gives plenty of encouragement that it will suit her. A daughter of Galileo she is from a family of 10f+ winners and is closely related to Sail, who won the Cheshire Oaks over 11f. Her dosage profile is not dissimilar to Imagine, winner of the Oaks back in 2001 for Aiden O’Brien, who won the Irish 1000 Guineas over 8f before stepping straight up to this trip for the Oaks. Vying for favouritism at around 3/1 (with William Hill), she looks to be the Ballydoyle first string and with the step up in trip certain to bring about improvement she has to have a big chance.

 

LIBER NAUTICUS

Sire: Azamour 4 time Group 1 winner 8-12f inc King George VI.
Dam: Serres Unraced, three-parts-sister to Conduit (St Leger and dual Breeders' Cup Turf winner 12-15f). 
From family of Irish Oaks winner Petrushka and Champion Stakes/Irish 2000 Guineas winner Spectrum. 
 

Lightly raced filly with just two starts so far, she is bred to be a very smart middle distance horse and so far she has lived up to that. From the family of St Leger winner Conduit stamina was always likely to be her strongpoint and although her dosage profile does not indicate a strong stamina bias, the way in which she won the Group 3 Musidora over 10f last time out suggests 12f will be fine for her. Her dosage profile is comparable to Snow Fairy who won the race back in 2010; she went on to run mainly over 10f but did win both the Oaks and Irish Oaks despite just having 1 stamina point in her dosage profile. Sir Michael Stoute has clearly taken his time with this filly and everything points to her putting up a bold show. Best Price 7/2 with Betfred.

 

BANOFFEE

Sire: Hurricane Run 4 time Group 1 winner inc. Irish Derby and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, (12f). 
Dam: Nanabanana Group 3/Listed placed at 2 over 6/7f. Daughter of a sister to Gold And Steel(Grade 2 American Derby winner over 10f). 
From family of Italian Oaks third Astrea. Half brother to dual 10f winner Eshtibaak.
 

Not as stoutly bred as some of her rivals but she has undeniably performed well in her two starts to date, particularly at Chester last time out when winning the Cheshire Oaks decisively from an unpromising position. She has been finishing her races strongly over 10/11f and the extra furlong ought not to be a problem for her. She flashed her tail early on at Chester which is a potential cause for concern, however it would be tough to question her attitude when Fallon asked her for her effort and with him booked again that wouldn’t be too much of a worry. She looks progressive and she needs to step forward again outside of the market principles she holds solid form and looks likely to run her race. Her dosage profile is similar to Sariska’s who beat Midday in the Oaks back in 2009. Best Price 8/1 with Ladbrokes.

 

SAY

Sire: Galileo 3 time Group 1 winner over 10-12f inc Derby. 
Dam: Riskaverse 3 time Grade 1 winner in America over 9-10f.
Three-parts-sister to Sadler’s Risk (Grade 1 placed juvenile hurdler) and full sister to maiden 12f winner Pink Damsel.
 

Last year’s winning connections will be hoping another daughter of Galileo can take home the prize this year and in Say, they have one of the toughest horses to weigh up in the field. With just a 12f maiden win to her name when sent off a 1/6 favourite, her form does not match up to her rivals but the fact she is taking her chance indicates there could be plenty more to come from her. She has a similar dosage profile to last year’s winner for the same connections Was; she also came into the race as just a maiden winner although she had also come third in a Group 3 contest. The trip will be no issue for her and so whilst it is slightly concerning she has fairly modest form to date it would be no surprise to see her leave that bare form behind her. Best Price 12/1 with William Hill.

 

TALENT

Sire: New Approach five-time Gr1 winner over 7-12f at 2-3 inc Derby. 
Dam: Prowess Maiden winner/Listed placed over 12f, finished 9th in Oaks. 
From family of Oaks winner Bireme. Half-sister to Skilful (three time winner/Listed placed over 7/8f). 
 

As well as likely favourite Secret Gesture, Ralph Beckett will saddle Talent, winner of the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes on her most recent start. A daughter of Derby winner New Approach and from the family of Oaks winner Bireme her breeding suggests this trip could suit her and although only workmanlike in her latest success, her attitude that day was pleasing. She will need to improve to trouble the market principles but she had Madame Defarge behind her at Newmarket and is worth her place in the field. Best Price 16/1 with William Hill.

 

MADAME DEFARGE

Sire: Motivator Dual Group 1 winner including impressive winner of the Derby. 
Dam: Friendlier Unraced, half-sister to User Friendly (5 time Group 1 winner inc Oaks, Irish Oaks and St Leger). 
 

A daughter of Derby winner Motivator, middle distances always looked likely to suit her on pedigree and her run behind Talent last time out suggested a step up in trip would be in her favour. Her form leaves her with plenty to find in this field and whilst she is open to further improvement on what will be just her third start, she is likely to struggle against this opposition; she won her maiden on heavy ground and so rain may allow her to be more competitive. Best Price 25/1 with William Hill.

 

THE LARK

Sire: Pivotal Group 1 winning sprinter. 
Dam: Gull Wing Listed winner over 14f, half-sister to Sariska (also sired by Pivotal; Oaks and Irish Oaks winner). 
 

Michael Bell saddles another runner and similar comments apply to this daughter of Pivotal; rain would help her chances. Her dosage profile suggests stamina would be her forte and her performance last time out certainly suggested she was ready for this sort of stamina test. Bred along the same lines as Sariska, she is arguably the most assured stayer in the field based on breeding at least. Although her form leaves her with plenty to find she is likely to be running on well at the finish and could outrun her odds of 33/1; whether she can really trouble the principles is a different matter. Best Price 33/1 with William Hill.

Full range of Oaks Betting (all odds courtesy of William Hill): 9/4 Secret Gesture, 3/1 Moth, 3/1 Liber Nauticus, 15/2 Banoffee, 12/1 Say, 16/1 Talent, 25/1 Madame Defarge, 33/1 The Lark.

Selection: Liber Nauticus @ 7/2 with Bet Victor

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

Thatsbettingtips Staff

Content Contributor at Thatsbettingtips.com
The team behind the betting tips, offers and promotions at tipster website thatsbettingtips.com.