Free betting tips for the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster, a Class 2 Handicap Chase at 3.30pm on Saturday 1st March.
This Saturday, Doncaster plays host to the William Hill Grimthorpe Chase which is a 3m2f Class 2 handicap chase. It is not usual to have such a high quality chase this close to Cheltenham but the race usually attracts types looking to build their form with a view ahead to Aintree and the Grand National. Here are some important trends to help dissect what looks a very strong renewal.
6 out of the last 6 winners were aged between 8 & 11.
6 out of the last 6 winners had an SP under 15/2.
6 out of the last 6 winners had won no more than 4 chases under rules.
6 out of the last 6 winners had run over at least 3m previously.
6 out of the last 6 winners had not won a race higher than Class 2 previously.
6 out of the last 6 winners had not won more than 3 Handicap chases.
5 out of the last 6 winners had won over at least 3m.
5 out of the last 6 winners were weighted under 11st.
5 out of the last 6 winners were rated at least 127.
4 out of the last 6 winners had placed in their previous runs.
Paul Nicholls is double handed here with Harry The Viking and Mon Parrain. Daryl Jacob has opted to ride Mon Parrain (12/1 Stan James) whose form has slipped slightly after being pulled up at Wetherby latest but if returning to the form shown 2/3 years ago he would have a chance. Mon Parrain has not run for over 120 days and does not meet all of the trends unlike bottom weight HARRY THE VIKING (8/1 BetVictor) who does meet every single one. Once touted as a very high class racehorse, his form has slipped but a third place finish here over 3m latest showed some form of revival and the horse has won twice at the course and is the only horse in the line-up to have won over C&D previously.
Wayward Prince (14/1 bet365) carries top weight which does not bear good omens with only 2 winners carrying more than 11st since 1997. The form of the horse has dipped a bit and i’m not expecting a big run from him. Surprisingly that stat also makes it tough for previous Scottish national winner Godsmejudge (10/1 bet365) and previous Welsh national winner Monbeg Dude (6/1 BetVictor). Considering both horses are being targeting for a tilt at the National, coupled with the fact that this is historically a tough race for those high in the weights, it is difficult to see either winning.
Mart Lane (14/1 Stan James) has enjoyed a small revival of sorts since the transition across the Irish Sea but has form to make up with some of these and the same can be said for Renard (16/1 bet365) who doesn’t have much experience over this sort of distance. Real Milan (9/1 Stan James) also has form to make up with Mart Lane and the form isn’t strong enough so the three can be dismissed as live chances. Storm Survivor (12/1 bet365) would look to have a chance on previous form but the trends prefer others towards the bottom of the weights.
The remaining three runners; Night In Milan, Court By Surprise and Golden Call are all favoured by the trends to run big races. Golden Call (7/1 BetVictor) won last time out ending a two year barren spell but has been punished by the handicapper and may struggle. On the other hand, Court By Surprise (5/1 bet365) has some great recent form in top races without being heavily punished and the presence of Barry Geraghty on board is a big positive. The horse has won at the course and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran well despite last year’s poor showing. Finally Night In Milan (12/1 Stan James), who has also won at the course, would be a prime candidate to win this despite falling at the third in last year’s renewal. The only issue is that the horse is near a career high mark and that might dent his chances.
In conclusion, the trends favour the horses under 11st. Most of the contenders meet a lot of the trends but some of those have either performed poorly in this race, struggled recently, or are on a career high mark but HARRY THE VIKING has the profile to claim the victory. The horse meets all the trends, will relish the extra 2f from his last run and is on a career low mark. All in all he should have the perfect conditions from which to bounce back to form.
HARRY THE VIKING (WIN) (8/1 BetVictor)
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