Grand National Trial Trends and Free Racing Tips

Trends Preview for The Grand National Trial – Haydock hosts the Grand National Trial on Saturday with horses looking to stake a claim for National glory in what looks to be a gruelling trial on heavy ground.  The race, which was once known as the Red Square Gold Cup, has always been a top class race in its own right and this year looks to be no different with a hugely competitive field of 14 runners having been assembled. 

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Trends – 

10 out of the last 10 winners were aged between 7 and 11 years-old

10 out of the last 10 winners had run over at least 3m3f over fences

10 out of the last 10 winners had won over at least 3m1f over fences

10 out of the last 10 winners had run in at least 5 chases

10 out of the last 10 winners had previously won between 2-4 chases

9 out of the last 10 winners finished in top 3 last time out (5 won)

8 out of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or higher

7 out of the last 10 winners had not won higher than a Class 2 event

7 out of the last 10 winners had run last within 40-55 days previously

2 out of the last 10 winners were winning Favourites

At the top of the weights, Across The Bay (10/1 Betfred) bids to be the 4^th horse in the history of the race to win carrying 11st12lb but, despite meeting a few of the trends, it will be a big ask to win with such a huge weight on ground as testing as this.  The same reservations apply to both Our Father (6/1 Coral) and Hawkes Point (6/1 William Hill) who, despite having progressive profiles, suffer from poor form (or a lack of form) over distances and therefore I can't consider backing them. 

Wychwoods Brook (8/1 bet365) won a decent race last time out beating Merry King and looks to still be improving.  Negatively though, the horse only meets a couple of the trends and is yet unproven over such a marathon trip.  Merry King (8/1 Stan James) didn’t lose by too great a margin and was staying on at the finish.  He’s an odd type as he gives the impression he will thrive over a truly lengthy trip but despite that, is yet to win over 2m5f.  On that basis, it might be worth watching to see if the horse can finally pick up a victory over this longer trip before backing him with any confidence.

Well Refreshed (9/1 BetVictor) was last year’s winner but hasn’t impressed since and is on a 12lb higher mark which might lessen the his chances further.

Soll (16/1 bet365), Wellforth (25/1 Betfred) and Le Reve (20/1 Stan James) all have reasonable form but have yet to step up to this sort of level and as the trends aren’t in their favour they look seriously up against it. 

Rigadin Du Beauchene (16/1 Betfred) finished second last year and has good form in this sort of class.  Arriving here off the same weight as last year is undoubtedly a positive but the long absence of over 300 days is more of a notable negative.  

Red Rocco (25/1 Ladbrokes) has seen his form tail off as of late and still has work to do to bounce back and turn his latest Haydock running with Nuts N Bolts around. 

The remaining contenders, Nuts N Bolts, Emperor’s Choice and Loch Ba are all horses who meet the trends.  Loch Ba (10/1 bet365) has consistently run good races and really deserves a big prize like this but he is yet to win over anything further than 3m.  Both NUTS N BOLTS (14/1 William Hill) and Emperor’s Choice (10/1 Ladbrokes) only fall down on one of the trends and have the form to feature.  Nuts N Bolts comes here with connections that are all too familiar with victory in this race with horses of similar profiles.  The horse last won a good race over course and distance before struggling in a Grade 3 company at Wetherby and this seems an easier task.  Emperor’s Choice is the pick of stable jockey Aidan Coleman for, arguably the trainer in form at the moment, Venetia Willams.  He won a nice race at Ffos last time out easily in heavy ground and with only a 5lb rise, is still weighted to run a big race here.

Predictably, this race looks a very difficult on paper but NUTS N BOLTS looks to have the best chance.  He represents connections who know how to win this contest and with big holes to be picked in the form of some of his rivals then he should run well.  The main dangers look to be the pair of Emperor’s Choice and Loch Ba, who both should also put in strong efforts.  Those towards the top of the weights look sure to struggle in the conditions. 

Grand National Trial Tip – 

NUTS N BOLTS (WIN) (14/1 William Hill)

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