Dewhurst Stakes Betting Tips Newmarket 3.10pm

War Command.jpg

With the flat season drawing to a close all eyes fall to Newmarket this Saturday for a host of interesting races and we have got free horse racing betting tips for the Dewhurst. 

Away from one of the best handicaps of the season, the Cesarewitch, we have the Group 1 Dubai Dewhurst Stakes, a race where the top two year-olds go head to head.  Run over 7 furlongs on the Rowley Mile Course this contest acts as a key piece of preparation for those horses with future Guineas aspirations.  The race regularly produces brilliant winners, the likes of which include Dawn Approach, Teofilo, and a little known horse by the name of Frankel. 

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Out of the last 7 renewals of the Dewhurst, 6 winners have come from across the sea with Jim Bolger leading the Irish charge with 5 winners.  This year the Irish are double handed in the race with Aiden O’Brien opting to enter the impressive Coventry winner War Command and the useful Friendship.  Alongside those, Godolphin will be looking to follow on from last year’s success with the Champagne Stakes winner Outstrip.  Richard Hannon sides with the useful winner of the July Stakes Anjaal and the field is completed by the highly consistent Cable Bay and the outsider Stormardal.

The obvious starting point is with the market leader War Command (6/5 with William Hill).  This son of War Front was an impressive winner of the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Ascot where he brushed aside a good quality field as he went on to win by 6 lengths.  Although he showed a good cruising speed it was clear that he would need further than 6f, something which became even more evident when he lost over 6f at the Curragh in Phoenix Stakes.  Since then he was upped in trip to 7f and back at Curragh in the Futurity Stakes where he returned to form and won well looking strong at the finish.  Although this horse has thrived when being able to run off a strong pace (something which is by no means guaranteed with a small field) the presence of his stablemate Friendship and a stiff 7f should suit him well and he looks to have a lot in his favour.

Of his rivals, Outstrip (2/1 Boylesports) is the most interesting challenger.  He won the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster over 7f beating the progressive The Grey Gatsby and one of today’s fellow competitors Cable Bay.  Despite being lazy as he left the stalls and still exhibiting signs of greenness throughout the race, he kept on well and displayed good natural ability.  This horse has an interesting form line with War Command in the form of another top 7f horse from the Richard Hannon stable.  Outstrip was collared late on at the line at Goodwood by Toormore who then went on to beat Friendship by 8 ½ lengths and also beat a David Wachman horse called Sudirman. Prior to that loss, Sudirman had beaten War Command by a length at the Curragh over 6f.  It may simply be a case that the trip was inadequate for War Command but it is a noteworthy piece of form nonetheless.

Although Richard Hannon doesn’t run Toormore he does enter Anjaal (7/1 Bet Victor), a progressive individual who looks sure to relish the step up to 7f.  His last run came at Newmarket in the Group 2 July Stakes over 6 furlongs on the July course where he charged late on to win by a neck.  He was slightly outpaced early on and was pushed along mid-way, however he showed plenty of stamina and an impressive galloping style to come from last to first and to win going away.  Again in a similar fashion to War Command, Anjaal clearly needs further and the track and trip should suit.  My concern with this horse comes in the form of the ground.  He has only raced so far on good to firm and was withdrawn from the Champagne Stakes (when favourite) due to the good to soft ground on that day.  Although as I write this article the ground at Newmarket is good to firm (8.5 on the going stick at 11am) the weather forecast predicts rain and quite a bit of it.  If the ground were good to firm, at the current odds I would consider him to be the value bet in the race but as it stands the ground looks likely to be good/good to soft come post time and that is a big negative.

Of the others, Cable Bay (16/1 William Hill) is certainly consistent but is exposed over this trip and I can’t see why he would reverse his form with Outstrip.  Friendship (14/1 William Hill) is similarly held on various form lines and looks certain to act as a pace setter for his stablemate.  Finally, Stormardal (66/1 Stan James) looks to have been thrown in the deep end with far too much to do to enter the frame.

So it seems that this is a straight up contest between the two market leaders War Command and Outstrip.  Both horses will seem to be suited by the forecasted rain, in particular Outstrip who could be a real danger if the ground comes up good to soft or worse.  However, as the recent race record suggests, the Irish challengers must be respected and War Command looks to have a strong chance.  Aiden O’Brien has given this horse nearly 50 days break to fully tune him up and you can expect that he’ll be on top form.  Although his victories so far have come in races with a strong contested pace, the presence of Friendship is a positive as he is likely to replicate his front running tactics shown in the Futurity Stakes and ensure there is a pace to suit the Ballydoyle first-string. 

It may be an obvious choice but the favourite seems to have the class at his disposal and the conditions in his favour to account for his rivals here and looks the most likely winner.

Newmarket 3.10pm Betting Tip

War Command – 6/5 with William Hill

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Thatsbettingtips Staff

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