The Triumph is the first race on the last day at the festival. We all know Friday is about the Gold Cup but the Triumph has produced some good winners in the past and looks to again this year.
Until COUNTRYWIDE FLAME last year, the winner tends to come from the top 4 in the betting (above). Another interesting stat is that 3 of the 6 winners of the Adonis Hurdle that ran in this race came out winners. This bodes well for Rolling Star (7/2/1 with Sportingbet) who beat Irish Saint at Cheltenham in January.
French horses do well in this race and this is probably because they tend to mature a little earlier than British horses and even more so than Irish horses. This is one reason why I lean towards Rolling Star and Far West instead of Our Conor (4/1 with Sportingbet).
Henderson has also been quoted as saying “he [Rolling Star] would compare favourably with our previous Triumph hurdle horses”. Won back to back with Zaynar and soldantino and had GRANDOUET in 2011. This is obviously some statement.
There isn’t a tremendous amount of form to go on but Far West won quite convincingly at Ascot last time out, beating RIVER MAIGUE (running in the Supreme Hurdle this year) by a couple of lengths. He won at Cheltenham twice before Christmas – beating VASCO DU RONCERAY (second to Irish Saint by half a length in the Adonis) by 7 lengths.
Our Conor cruised to win at Leopardstown 3 weeks ago, beating DIAKALI. He certainly looks to be the best Irish novice hurdler but I’ll stick with the form and say a French horse will win this race.
All 3 at the top of the market have legitimate claims. This should be a very tight race that may even come down to which jockey has the best ride. I think Geraghty will ride Rolling Star and this will be his race once more. Rolling Star has only run twice over hurdles and lots of people will be wary about backing a horse with so little experience versus the more experienced others. 3 of the last 5 winners of the Triumph have actually had 2 or less starts over hurdles so this trend points towards the Henderson trained Rolling Star.
Triumph Hurdle Tips
2pts win Rolling Star (7/2 with Sportingbet)
MAIN DANGER: Our Conor (4/1 with Sportingbet)
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