Preview of the Betbright Chase and Free Racing Tips – The BetBright Chase is the feature race on Saturday at Kempton Park. This race, formerly known as the Racing Post Chase, tends to be the last big race before the Cheltenham Festival and has produced some fine winners in the past. Many trainers also tend to use this race to fine tune their horses for Aintree and the Grand National. I have put together some trends to help work out what can sometimes be a tough handicap contest.
10 out of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or above.
8 out of the last 10 winners had run and won a chase over 3 miles.
8 out of the last 10 winners had won between 2 & 5 chase races.
7 out of the last 10 winners had run at the Cheltenham or Aintree Festivals in previous years.
7 out of the last 10 winners carried 11st or more.
6 out of the last 10 winners won last time out.
Bury Parade (4/1 Stan James) trained by Paul Nicholls heads the betting and is a worthy favourite after a fine win at Ascot last time out. Already a winner at Kempton, he is a rapidly improving type and could well still have plenty more to come. In terms of the key trends, this horse is yet to win over 3 miles but, with improvement likely, he should get the trip. Paul Nicholls also runs Grandioso (9/1 William Hill) and Jump City (14/1 bet365), the former was given a 5 length beating by Bury Parade last time out and despite winning a Grade 2 race at Kempton, he may struggle to turn the form with his stalemate around. Added to that, both Grandioso and Jump City haven’t won over 3 miles as of yet and both need to improve to have a real chance of landing the prize.
Ardkilly Witness (6/1 William Hill) is the current second favourite and seems to be on a good mark with four placed runs in a row. His form when finishing second at Sandown looks to be solid, however he too is another horse yet to win over 3m and has only won one race over fences which is a big negative.
PLANET OF SOUND (10/1 Betfred) is the only Grade 1 winner in the field and historically that is a good omen with Nacarat and Marlborough among others winning this race after Grade 1 honours. It seems that the horse is coming back to form and he represents the only runner who meets all the trends. This is a huge positive and following the trends this horse should have a solid chance of victory.
Of the others, Bless The Wings (16/1 Coral) has some good form but is yet to even get near a win over this distance and that negative also applies to Niceonefrankie (16/1 Betfred). Midnight Appeal (14/1 bet365), Whats Happening (14/1 William Hill) and Bally Legend (25/1 Stan James) all have some good form but are probably not up to the level required to win this contest. Both Tour Des Champs (14/1 Betfred) and Baile Anrai (12/1 William Hill) could run well off low weights but both have struggled in the past when racing in Graded company.
Fianlly, Standing Ovation (9/1 BetVictor) has the form of a typical David Pipe improver but when beaten last time that defeat probably showed the limit of his improvement and the form doesn’t look good enough to win a Grade 3.
In conclusion, both the trends and my head tell me that this is a two horse race between the top two in the weights. Only the top four are rated as high as the last 10 winners of the race and only Bury Parade and Planet Of Sound really have the form in the book to run away with this. I like Bury Parade a lot and the amount of improvement in this horse will show in time but PLANET OF SOUND knows how to win a top race and also knows how to win a race at Kempton. The decision was made easier by the horse meeting every single trend and for that reason his odds look an absolute steal and a great price for each-way backers.
PLANET OF SOUND (E/W) (10/1 Betfred)
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