ATP Finals 2013 betting tips: The season’s finale at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London has finally arrived. After 11 months on the tour, the best eight players in the world will compete at the O2 arena, with all of them feeling as though they have a chance.
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Rafael Nadal (3/1 Sportingbet)
What a season Nadal has enjoyed, achieving a phenomenal 68/5 win to loss ratio this season. Nadal is undoubtedly the player of the year, and will enter London looking to secure the year end number one ranking. Of the 15 tournaments he has entered this season, only once has Nadal failed to make the semi finals stage; and having arguably been drawn into the easier group, Nadal should make the semi-final stages once again. Overall Nadal holds a 48-7 win to loss career record over his group A opposition.
However, Nadal has yet to win the event, despite having appeared five times previously. The fast indoor surface clearly doesn’t suit Nadal’s game, with his best showing coming in 2010 where he made the final. Despite incorporating more aggression into his game this season, he has still fallen short during this season’s indoor swing. Having not won an indoor title since 2005 in Madrid I expect Nadal to fall just short again.
David Ferrer (33/1 Winner)
Ferrer has once again punched above his weight this season. He enters London with a renewed sense that his form has returned, beating Nadal in Paris on a similar court surface, and pushing Djokovic in the final, losing in two tightly contested sets. However, taking a more long term look, Ferrer since Roland Garros has lost to six different players outside the top 20 this season. He also struggles to find the winning formula when facing the top players, having one just 9 times in 53 outings against Nadal, Djokovic and Federer. Having a less than impressive 8-7 win to loss record at this event, a semi final appearance is surely the best Ferrer can ask for.
Tomas Berdych (28/1 Sportingbet)
Berdych enters London as the only player to have qualified, despite having not won a title this season. Furthermore, he enters London as the most out of form player, having endured early losses at both Shanghai and Basel, two court surfaces very similar to London. Even more worryingly, he was defeated by group opponent Ferrer in Paris last week, an event much like the one in London, in which Berdych would have expected to hold a distinct advantage over Ferrer. Additionally, Berdych’s record against all of his group A opponents reads unfavourably. Berdych will be lucky to win one match this year, and I would recommend staying well clear of him.
Stanislas Wawrinka (51/1 Betfair)
This season, Wawrinka has finally realised his undoubted potential and has been rewarded by a debut appearance in London this year. The world number 8 has amassed an impressive 47/20 win to loss ratio this season. On his day, Wawrinka can beat or certainly push the very best players, especially on a fast hard court. With heavy ground-strokes from both wings, he has the weapons to cause problems for all of his group A opponents. However I expect Wawrinka, despite all this to fall just short. I expect Ferrer’s and Nadal’s overall class to prove just too much for Wawrinka at London. Yet if one of his opponents is just slightly of his game, Wawrinka could well cause the odd upset this week.
Novak Djokovic (5/4 Sky Bet)
Djokovic enters London looking to defend his title he won in style last year. He will also be looking to re-assert himself at the top of the men’s game, having gone on an undefeated run since his US Open final loss to Nadal in early September. He has the toughest draw possible however, with an opening fixture against the six time champion Federer on Tuesday, following on from an exhausting Paris final against David Ferrer. However if one man has the stamina to prevail through this tough group and go all the way this week is Djokovic himself, having on countless occasion defied what is possible physically by a tennis player. He enjoys favourable head to head results especially this season against all of his group B opponents, and the court surface will only aid his challenge further. He enters as undoubtedly the most in form player and it would only be through an outstanding display by one of his opponents or fatigue that will deny Djokovic from retaining his title.
Juan Martin Del Potro (8/1 Sportingbet)
Behind Djokovic, Del Potro represents the most in-form player entering London this week. He is approaching the kind of form that had many pundits predicting he would reach world number 1 back in 2009 after his win at the US Open. In the same year, he also reached the final of this event. His all power and aggressive game certainly favours the court surface in London and has furthermore amassed the majority of his titles indoors, his most recent being in Basel two weeks ago, defeating fellow group B contender Roger Federer in the final. However a word of caution, despite being in fantastic form, there is still a theory that Del Potro struggles at the business end of tournaments. This is highlighted by the fact that his US Open win in 2009 represents his only triumph above a 500 event level. Having to most likely play Federer, Nadal and Djockovic twice in less than a week to triumph in London, Del Potro needs to produce A game to stand a chance of lifting the trophy.
Roger Federer (10/1 Paddy Power)
The 32 year old has endured a testing season by his very high standards. A disappointing summer led to question marks over Federer’s future in the game to compete at the very highest level. However his recent showings in both Basel and Paris has shown there is still life in the old dog, and having won the event a record six times, Federer’s challenge should not be taken lightly. Having gained revenge on Del Potro in Paris just last week and pushing Djokovic all the way, it shows that the statistic that Federer this season had failed to beat a fellow top 10 player prior to defeating Del Potro in Paris since the Australian Open should not be seen as a major factor. Furthermore, Federer boasts the best indoors record of the currently active players on tour and was a finalist at this event last year. However much like Del Potro, the draw is unfavourable and so therefore making it unlikely that Federer will finish a tough 2013 season on a high.
Richard Gasquet (132/1 Betfair)
Gasquet is the rank outsider, and despite a title in Moscow, his chances of another title in London are very slim at best. A semi-final run at the US Open shows Gasquet is worthy of his inclusion, however one can’t help but wonder Gasquet only secured his place in London due to the withdrawal of Andy Murray. Drawn in the group of death, Gasquet should expect a disappointing end to an otherwise promising season.
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