Staged at the Cheltenham Festival each March the Grade One Queen Mother Champion Chase is run over 2m, with 12 fences to tackle. This is where ThatsBettingTips give you the Champion Chase trends to help you find the winner based on past statistics – for all of our tips visit our Cheltenham Festival tips page!
The betting for the 2016 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase sees last season’s Arkle Chase winner, Un De Sceaux, heading the market, while former champions Dodging Bullets, Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre will add further spice to the 2016 Champion Chase.
Run as the featured race on the second day (Wednesday) of the festival the race was first run back in 1959 and given the ‘Queen Mother’ title in 1980 to celebrate the Queen mum’s 80th birthday.
We back at recent winners and highlight the key trends, plus give you our free Champion Chase tips to take into the 2016 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 16th March.
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As we move onto Wednesday, it feels like we are entering a new era in this race with former winners Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy not getting any younger at 10 years-old and really you suspect this will be the last year these to take this race.
Ok, last year’s hero – Dodging Bullets – can’t be dismissed despite being beating in the Game Spirit at Newbury recently. He’s still only 8 years-old and although he’s had his problems this season the Paul Nicholls camp have reported to have him ready to give it a good crack at defending his title. That recent run would have blown away the cobwebs and the better ground come March will suit him a lot better than the heavy conditions he faced at Newbury. He looks a decent each-way option in the race, and could be the forgetten horse – let’s not forget he’s the current champ – while last year’s third, Special Tiara, is another that is sure to attract the each-way players.
The Tingle Creek, run earlier in the season (Dec), has always been a good guide in finding the winner in recent years – 11 of the last 15 winners ran in that Sandown Park contest. This was again backed-up 12 months ago with Dodging Bullets taking both races – therefore, that’s a plus for Sire De Grugy, who took this season’s Sandown race in December.
Add in that 10 of the last 13 winners had won last time out, and that 11 of the last 13 had raced over fences at Cheltenham in the past then these are further pluses in favour of the past winners in the race – Dodging Bullets, Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy. But, and it’s a big BUT, there is one huge fly in the ointment for these horses – Un De Sceaux!
The Willie Mullins yard are, surprisingly, still to win this Championship race, but last season’s Arkle Chase victor looks set to go off odds-on here, and after his 5 length slamming of Sire De Grugy at Ascot in January makes him the one to beat. He’s won 5 of his 7 chase starts with his only blips coming when falling on two occasions. Those taking him on will cling to his potential jumping frailties, but barring the Tingle Creek trend this 8 year-old ticks most of the other key stats, while previous Arkle winners have generally fared well when stepping up to the next level. We think Gods Own, who was secon behind Un De Sceax, in the Arkle 12 months ago looks a fair each-way option as there's a good chance he'll get his ground. But, barring accidents, we should be seeing a Willie Mullins-trained winner of this race for the first time this year with UN DE SCEAUX.
Queen Mother Champion Chase Trends
13/13 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
11/13 – Had won at least 5 times over fences before
11/13 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
10/13 – Won last time out
10/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
8/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
6/13 – Irish bred
6/13 – French bred
5/13 – Won by an Irish-based horse
5/13 – Won the Arkle Chase the previous season
5/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Ran in the Tied Cottage Chase (Punchestown) last time out
3/13 – Ran in the Game Spirit Chase (Newbury) last time out
2/13 – Had won the race before
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 9/2
Other Queen Mother Champion Chase Stats
11 of the last 15 winners ran in that season’s Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown)
19 of the last 31 winners had previously won at the Cheltenham Festival
33 of the last 34 winners returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
Last 14 Arkle Chase winners to run the next season in this have finished placed or better
13 of the last 14 winners had won a Grade One Chase previously
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