Well, well, well the weather seems be playing a big part in the story of the upcoming US Open at Merion Golf Club in Pennsylvania, heavy rain at the weekend and forecast to continue into rounds one and two could have a significant impact on the eventual winners and therefore our betting plan.
If you read my initial Anti-Post tips last weekend (if not you are forgiven, they are here again for you – goo.gl/jHV6D) you will see I sided with the typical ‘street fighter/grinder’ US open style players in McDowell and Kuchar, but it is one of my other selections Kevin Chappell who has continued to drop in price. His performance in finishing 2nd to Kuchar at Memorial, combined with his excellent US Open record and high number of competitive rounds at Merion all point towards a very strong showing. The soft ground should only suit him further; he is a long powerful hitter who will benefit if his tee shots sit down quickly, this explains his price dropping from 200/1 in my anti-post tips to as low as 66/1 in places now.
Before I go onto my final selections please check out the FANTASTIC offer from @BetVictor below –
Bet Victor are paying 7 (Yes Seven!) places at ¼ of the odds for the US Open – this combined with their excellent £25 FREE BET offer makes it the perfect time to sign up and take full advantage! – Sign up here to open an account & take advantage.
For those who have not read the initial preview, here is brief course synopsis (updated).
A quick overview of the Merion Course – short and tight (6,996 yards) and a big favourite of golfing great Jack Nicklaus who suggests the course does not play that short “Merion has a few short holes, but a bunch of long tough holes, no way will it be too short” he recently said. No Par 5’s after the 4th hole of your round and some long par 3’s (and one short one just 115 yards!) suggest that par 4 scoring will be key, with a few of the Par 4’s measuring around 350-360 yards you can bet the fairways will be tight and rough up high. This layout should prove suitable for the mentally tough, who can grind out a score when lesser players get frustrated with the tight fairways, high rough and tricky pins. With the weather forecast looking very, very wet this may bring in more players who are little less accurate from the tee (the fairways holding better in these wet conditions) , but be mindful that the rough will likely play even tougher if wet, so if you do stray it will likely be most costly.
My final selections include all my initial selections, plus 2 late additions with updated prices, ALL from our friends at @BetVictor.
There are 2 others who I will not tip, as 7 selections are more than enough!! I believe the tips provide the best value, however – I will also back Tiger to win at 11/2 and Bill Haas Each Way at 70/1, as described in my anti-post tips it is very hard to oppose Tiger on recent form, as for Bill Haas I just think he is good value at 70/1 for someone who is 2nd in Par 4 scoring and hits plenty of GIR.
Graeme McDowell – 22/1 WIN
McDowell has a great attitude for the US Open; he is street fighter of a golfer, who displays the same effort and concentration when hitting 83 or 63. Ranks 1st in driving accuracy scrambling and 11th in strokes gained putting on tour on tour in 2013, has won in on the PGA and European tour in the last 8 weeks and won the US Open in 2010 on a pebble beach course of a similar length and was runner up last year at Olympic, a must pick for me.
Phil Mickelson – 20/1 WIN
2nd last week at the St Jude is great preparation for Phil, he has been unfortunate but relatively consistent in previous US Opens, finishing in the places in 4 of the last 10 years, on 3 of these occasions finishing runner up. The softer course should aid his somewhat erratic game, if he can find a club to consistently get him in the fairway he really could go well, short game is returning to its best and with his pin point wedge game he will destroy the short 4’s if approaches are from the short grass. Really could be his year.
Matt Kuchar – 20/1 WIN
Currently leading the Memorial having played 4 holes of the final round at time of writing, Kuchar has been fantastically consistent once again this year, winner of the WGC Match play and has 3 stroke play Top 10’s in addition this season. Memorial is playing tough and week and Kuchar has so far coped well, another player not easily fazed Kuchar has finished 6th, 20th, 27th in the last three US Opens, the 6th coming at Pebble Beach behind McDowell in 2010.
Martin Kaymer –80/1 Each Way
Slowly but surely returning to form, recently secured a top 10 in the Byron Nelson on the PGA tour having had a couple in Europe at the start of the season, finished an impressive 15th in last year’s US open despite struggling for form. Already a major champion of course Kaymer has the steel and determination to deal with the tough conditions and is another who performed well at the US Open Pebble in 2010, finishing 8th.
Kevin Streelman – 100/1 Each Way
A win and 3 other top 10’s in his last 8 starts on the PGA tour, one of the hottest players around at the moment and has game suited to the US Open, which is a major which is building a reputation of supplying first time major champions. The price looks very big when you consider these statistics, Ranks -18th in driving accuracy, 20th in GIR, 26th in strokes gained putting and 33rd in scrambling on tour this season, has struggled in previous US opens but this has been a breakout season for Streelman and he may just be ready to take a big one.
Kevin Chappell – 80/1 Each Way
Currently playing well at the Memorial tournament, Chappell appears to thrive on tough layouts and has an excellent US Open record finishing T4th in 2011 and T10th in 2012, he also has 2 top 10’s this season to date. A real attraction for me is that Chappell is ranked 2nd in approaches between 50-125 yards this season, on a course with a number of short par 4’s that is of real interest, also ranked 47th in Par scoring, 26th in total driving and 60th in scrambling, big price.
Russell Henley – 110/1 Each Way
A young version of Brandt Snedeker in my opinion, great putter (with a Snedeker like poppy stroke) and plays at brisk pace, won on debut on the PGA tour at the Sony Open with an incredible -24 total and has continued to impress this season; with 2 top 10’s in his last 5 PGA tour starts. Finished a credible 16th in the US Open when an amateur at Pebble beach in 2010 when, as usual, he was high up in the GIR stats, ranking 5th on the week. Has shown no signs of being scarred of winning and is surely a future star, no reason he can’t get started this week.
Follow us on @thatsbettingtip for more tips and banter.
To claim your £25 Free Bet from BetVictor:
2. Open a new account
3. Place a £25 bet
4. BetVictor will match that deposit with a free bet of the same value