Sat C4 Horse Racing Trends: 20th Feb 2016
Sat C4 Horse Racing Trends: 20th Feb 2016 The C4 cameras are at Ascot racecourse for four races that include the scot Chase and the return of Silvinaco Conti while they also head to Wincanton racecourse for one races, plus two at Haydock Park – including their Grand National Trial – As always we’ve got all the big race trends and stats for ALL of the LIVE races, plus our free horse racing tips – we hope they help you narrow down the fields and highlight a few winners.
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ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/C4)
1.50 – Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (An Ascot Appearance Money Scheme Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m7f180y CH4
13/13 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
11/13 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
11/13 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Won last time out
9/13 – Irish bred
8/13 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
7/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (2 winners)
6/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/13 – Winners that went onto finish 5th or better in the RSA Chase
3/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2
Note: The 2005 & 2006 – Run at Lingfield Park
FREE BETTING TIPS: The Nicky Henderson team took this in 2010 and 2011 so their Vyta Du Roc will be hoping to add to those successes. However, his 7 year-old needs to bounce-back from being beaten at 2/5 last time out and might not be one to totally rely on. Le Mercury and Onenightinvienna were also both beaten favourites last time out, but with 11 of the last 13 winners having won last time out then the only horse in the field that fits that trend is Ben Pauling’s DRUMACOO (Bet here at 9/4 with Bet365). This 7 year-old will be ridden by Gold Cup-winning jockey Nico de Boinville, and heads here on the up after an easy 38 length win at Huntingdon. The first-time hood was on that day and seemed to do the trick so they stick with the headgear here. Yes, a tougher race, but he seems to be going the right way.
2.25 – Appletiser 50 Year Celebration Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m7f180y CH4
Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
5/5 – Won 1 or 2 chase wins
4/5 – Raced at either Ascot (2) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
4/5 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
3/5 – Winning distance head or shorter
3/5 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
3/5 – Aged in double-figures
3/5 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
2/5 – Won last time out
2/5 – Irish bred
2/5 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 5/1
FREE BETTING TIPS: The race has cut-up a bit and in terms of the trends we’ve only had five previous runnings of the race. However, all of the past 5 winners had won between 1-2 times over fences in the past, while 4 of the last 5 winners had raced at either Ascot or Cheltenham last time out. WALDORF SALAD (Bet here at 3/1 with Coral) fits both those key trends after a fine staying-on second at Cheltenham in his last run. This Venetia Williams-trained 8 year-old gets in here with a light-weight (10-6) and will love the conditions.
3.00 – Les Ambassadeurs Casino Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m3f110y CH4
9/10 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
9/10 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
7/10 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
7/10 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
7/10 – Carried 10-12 or less
6/10 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
6/10 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
5/10 – Priced 9/1 or bigger
5/10 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/10 – Placed favourites
4/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/10 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before
3/10 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
2/10 – Raced at Sandown last time out
2/10 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/1
FREE BETTING TIPS: Nicky Henderson’s Different Gravey returns to the track after a 309 day absence and looks a big player if returning to the form of his last run, but he has to give weight away all-round and that might not be easy on his first run back in soft ground. He’s rated 13lbs higher than the bottom weight FINGERTIPS (e/w) (Bet here at 11/1 with Skybet), but with the Pipe horse only being a 4 year-old only has to carry 10-2 here – 24lbs less than Different Gravey. The Pipe team also took this race 12 months ago and despite looking held when falling last time out at Sandown has a much lower racing weight this time (carried 11-8) that day.
3.35 – Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y CH4
13/13 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
12/13 – Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
11/13 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
11/13 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
11/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
9/13 – Favourites placed
9/13 – Officially rated 158 or higher
8/13 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
8/13 – Favourites that won
7/13 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
6/13 – Unplaced in their latest race
5/13 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
5/13 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year
4/13 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
4/13 – Won their last race
3/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Note: The 2005 & 2006 – Run at Lingfield Park
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 2/1
FREE BETTING TIPS: This has been another good race for the Henderson team – winning it in 2011 and 2012 – they look to have a strong-hand again with Ma Filleule and Triolo D’ Alene, who both head here off the back of good wins last time out. Royal Regatta has been popular in the ante-post market for much of the week and is a past CD winner so that gives him a chance, but does have a bit to find on these terms with some of these. Dynaste was poor over hurdles last time out so needs to bounce-back over fences, but if finding his old form would be a huge player. So this could be left to SILVINIACO CONTI (Bet here at 3/1 with Betfair), who we last saw being pulled-up in the King George on Boxing Day. He can be forgiven one bad run and on the ratings is the one to beat. He’s a course winner here at Haydock, while it’s interesting connections try the blinkers on him for the first time – if they make the difference he should be hard to beat on level terms with most of them. Ma Filleule rates the main danger for us.
HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/C4)
2.05 – Betfred "Home of Goals Galore" Hurdle (Registered as Rendlesham Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y CH4
12/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/13 – Aged 8 or younger
10/13 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
9/13 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
9/13 – Rated 145 or higher
9/13 – Placed favourites
8/13 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
8/13 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
8/13 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (no winners)
5/13 – French-bred
5/13 – Had run at Haydock before
4/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/13 – Ran at Ascot last time out
1/13 – Winning favourites
1/13 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 – Run at Kempton Park
FREE BETTING TIPS: Some old favourites on show here, like Reve de Sivola and At Fishers Cross – both will love the ground and should make bold bids, with AT FISHERS CROSS (Bet here at 9/2 with Paddy Power) being an improved second last time out at Gowran Park to suggesting he might be about to return to winning ways. Don’t forget he was a fair fourth in the World Hurdle last season and that recent run was off a 10 month break. One Track Mind is another to note as he looks a real improver for the Warren Greatrex team – he won well last time out at Newbury and with just six career hurdles starts there should be a lot more to come.
2.40 – Betfred Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f CH4
13/13 – UK trained winners
13/13 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
12/13 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/13 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/13 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
10/13 – Aged 10 or younger
10/13 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
9/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/13 – Carried 11-0 or less
9/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/13 – Aged 9 or younger
9/13 – Finished in the top two last time out
9/13 – Rated 135 or higher
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
6/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
5/13 – Irish-bred winners
4/13 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/13 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/13 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/13 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 10/1
FREE BETTING TIPS: The Kerry Lee camp will be bidding to land another big Saturday race here with their Welsh National hero Mountainous, who has been at the top of the ante-post betting since the market was formed. This 11 year-old was a mud-splattered victor of that gruelling Chepstow race last month and with conditions looking set to be very similar at Haydock on Saturday then he’s certainly one that won’t shy away from a slog – 3 of the last 13 winners of this race finished first or second in the Welsh National last time out. The yard also have Bishops Road, who was a good winner last time out at Sandown, entered as they will be looking for a famous 1-2 in the race. The pair are, however, up 10lbs and 14lbs in the ratings.
Recent course winner Cloudy Too, from the Sue Smith team, is another that the punters have attached themselves to after his recent 15 length win at here at Haydock last time. That win gives him a great chance and will be fine in these conditions – but is now racing off a 10lb higher rating.
The race is billed as a Grand National trial, but it doesn’t have the best record of producing horses that go onto glory in the Merseryside Marathon – Suny Bay in 1997 took this and went onto finish runner-up in the 1997 Aintree National, is about as good as it gets.
In terms of the key trends to note then UK-trained winners have won ALL of the last 13 runnings, while the same amount had won between 2-4 times over fences.
11 of the last 13 successful horses were placed in the top three last time out, plus 10 of the last 13 were aged 10 or younger and had raced in the last 7 weeks. If we add in that 9 of the last 13 victors carried 11-0 or less then all of the above trends are the main stats to take into the 2016 renewal of the Haydock Grand National Trial.
Gas Line Boy unseated last time out here in the race Cloudy Too won, but looked to be going well at the time and if ironing out his jumping looks a big player, especially as he’s one of just two previous CD winners in the field.
For us though the Venetia Williams-trained RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (e/w) (Bet here at 7/1 with William Hill), who is the other past CD winner in the field, is the call – he landed the race in 2014. Yes, he’s not getting any younger at 11 years-old, and needs to bounce-back from a recent fall at Warwick, but was unlucky that day to be hampered by a loose horse and looked like running a good race. He gets in here with just 10-10 in weight and so at a course we know he likes, and over conditions that look ideal, he’s another that looks to have fair each-way chance (if all 8 run) in a very open-looking event.
WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/C4)
3.20 – Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y CH4
12/12 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
11/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
11/12 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
11/12 – Priced 10/3 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
9/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/12 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
8/12 – Rated 155 or higher
7/12 – Winning favourites
7/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Raced at Sandown last time out
2/12 – Trained by Alan King
1/12 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/4
FREE BETTING TIPS: Just the four runners here – Rayvin Black will make a bold bid from the front, while Melodic Rendezvous won this race in 2014. Pain Au Chocolat represents last year’s winning stable – Dan Skelton – and heads here on the up after two recent wins. However, on these terms they might all struggle to beat IRVING (Bet here at 5/6 with 888 Sport). This Paul Nicholls-trained horse is another past CD winner here and despite being well-beaten last time out at Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle did make a few mistakes that day. He’s been given enough time off to get over that and really based on his 1 ¼ length beating of To Notch, who won well in the week, should be taking this.
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