So it will be no suprise to any of us to see Serena and Sharapova face off in a Grand Slam final for the 3rd time in their careers (the score is tied at 1-1 currently), and sadly for the punters favouring a match bet it doesn’t look like there’s much value out their either.
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More interestingly for me would be a bet on the game handicaps where the line is at 5.5. In their past 6 meetings running back to May 2012, Serena has won all 6 and averages a winning margin of 7.5 games per match. She’s only failed to cover the 5.5 handicap on one occassion in that run and only missed out by 0.5 in that particular match.
Sharapova hasn’t been at her best this tournament by her own admission and her coach has publically stated his disappointment with her showings in the early rounds. Her win against Azarenka looks good on paper but after a great first set the standard thereafter was fairly poor with neither looking comfortable holding onto their serve. Serena has the serve as an ally rather than a enemy as Sharapova often finds it, and with Serena looking to be aggressive on the return this heightens the pressure on the Sharapova delivery even more so we can expect to see a fair amount of double faults in the final.
Sharapova’s never beaten Williams on clay and I dont expect that to change tomorrow.
Recommendation – Serena -5.5 games @ 11/10 with Coral
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