Betfair Hurdle Free Tips and Trends – The Betfair Hurdle is run at Newbury racecourse and is a Grade Three hurdle that’s run over a distance of 2m 1/2f in February. The contest was first staged back in 1963, while the race is always an ultra-competitive and very well-contested affair. Some keen National Hunt fans might still know the event better as either the Tote Gold Trophy or the totesport Trophy, as that’s what the race was named before Betfair took over the sponsorship mantle in 2012. So, to help you narrow down the field we've got all the 2016 Betfair Hurdle Betting Tips and Trends listed below.
The race is also billed as another Champion Hurdle trial ahead of next month’s Cheltenham Festival with in recent years the likes of – Persian War and Make A Stand – going onto Champion Hurdle glory at Prestbury Park later that season. Plus, the 2003 winner, Spirit Leader, went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival the following month.
We look back at recent winners of the race and highlight the main trends ahead of the 2016 renewal – this year staged on Saturday 13th February.
Recent Betfair Hurdle Winners
2015 – VIOLET DANCER (20/1)
2014 – SPLASH OF GINGE (33/1)
2013 – MY TENT OR YOURS (5/1 fav)
2012 – ZARKANDAR (11/4 fav)
2011 – RECESSION PROOF (12/1)
2010 – GET ME OUT OF HERE (6/1)
2009 – No race
2008 – WINGMAN (14/1)
2007 – HEATHCOTE (50/1)
2006 – No race
2005 – ESSEX (4/1 fav)
2004 – GEOS (16/1)
2003 – SPIRIT LEADER (14/1)
2002 – COPELAND (13/2)
2001 – LANDING LIGHT (4/1 fav)
2016 Betfair Hurdle Betting Trends
13/13 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
12/13 – Aged 7 or younger
12/13 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
11/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
11/13 – Ran in the top 3 last time out
11/13 – Rated 130 or higher
11/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
11/13 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
10/13 – From the first 7 in the betting
10/13 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/13 – Favourites placed
9/13 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
7/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Won their last race
7/13 – Priced a double-figure price in the betting
6/13 – From the top 5 in the betting
5/13 – Aged 5 years-old (including 5 of last 8)
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/13 – Trained by Gary Moore
2/13 – Ran at Leopardstown last time out
2/13 – Owned by JP McManus
1/13 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
18 of the last 19 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 14.4/1
FREE RACING TIP: In most recent runnings the Nicky Henderson and Gary Moore yards have had great success in the race, but surprisingly neither have entries this year. Therefore, of the trainers that have won the prize in the recent times the Paul Nicholls and Jonjo O’Neill yards might be ones to look out for having won the race in 2012 (Zarkandar) and 2010 (Get Me Out Of Here).
Both have entries at this stage of the week with Paul Nicholls actually having one of the main players in the market with Modus, while Jonjo’s lowest-priced entry at this stage is the 6 year-old Mad Jack Mytton – both look interesting stat horses too (more on that below).
If we look at the trends there are some key repeating stats that leap off the page so despite the big-looking field we should be able to knock a fair few out and narrow down the final runners.
The age of the winner has been key in recent years with horses aged 7 or younger holding sway – winning 12 of the last 13 runnings, with 5 and 6 year-old having by-far the best recent record.
Next up is to note the recent form of each horse as 11 of the last 13 winners finished in the top three last time out – this eliminates quite a few more, while with 12 of the last 13 winners having won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the past this is another key trend to apply.
Top owner JP McManus has also won this race in recent years – winning it in 2010 with Get Me Out Of Here and then again in 2013 with My Tent Or Yours, and he looks to have another decent hand this year with Modus and Blazer running under his ownership.
Therefore, with all the key stats taken into account the horses that standout at this stage are MODUS, BLAZER, STERNRUBIN and MAD JACK MYTTON.
MODUS – Is from the Paul Nicholls yard, who won this in 2012. The 6 year-old is also JP McManus-owned and we know he loves to win this prize. The horse was last seen finishing third at Taunton over a longer trip, but was a nice winner the time before over this course and distance. The drop back in distance will suit, especially in what’s likely to be heavy ground, while connections have given the horse, who was a close second in the Cheltenham Festival bumper last season, a nice break after it's last run – he looks a big player off a fair mark.
BLAZER – Another owned by JP McManus. This horse comes from the Willie Mullins stable and went into many a notebook after an easy win in heavy ground at Leopardstown last Saturday. Yes, this race might come a bit soon for him, so we’ll have to see if he makes the final line-up, but he gets in here with a light-weight and that would be a big advantage in this ground.
STERNRUBIN – This German-bred 5 year-old hails from the Philip Hobbs yard and has done nothing wrong in recent outings – winning his last four. He dead-heated last time at Ascot in a 21-runner race, and despite being put up 8lbs for that is another course and distance winner which is a bonus. The ground might ideally need to dry out a bit, but the stable are going well at present and he’s another that ticks a lot of the trends profile of previous winners of the race.
MAD JACK MYTTON – Of the four trends horses selected this one looks likely to go off at the biggest odds if running. The stable won this in 2010 with Get Me Out Of Here so know what’s required, while a recent second at Cheltenham back in December has since been given a shot in the arm with the winner – Solstice Star – winning again. The horse has been placed in the top three in 7 of his 8 hurdles starts and despite being untried on heavy ground has gone alright with give underfoot in the past.